Prediction: FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC
Team pages: FC Cincinnati · Charlotte FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.83Total
FC Cincinnati2.27
Charlotte FC1.56
1X2
FC Cincinnati
Draw
Charlotte FC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Cincinnati
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Charlotte FC
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Cincinnati
1–2–3
Charlotte FC
(6 last)
- Charlotte FC2-2FC Cincinnati
- FC Cincinnati0-1Charlotte FC
- Charlotte FC2-0FC Cincinnati
- FC Cincinnati1-3Charlotte FC
- Charlotte FC1-1FC Cincinnati
- FC Cincinnati3-0Charlotte FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Cincinnati 1510 · Charlotte FC 1556
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | Charlotte FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 22% | 26% |
| Market | 52% | 23% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.83 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte FC (rating 1510 vs 1556).
- H2H favours Charlotte FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Cincinnati | Charlotte FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 2.4 | 2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 70/30/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.4 | 2.6 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cincinnati 1–2–3 Charlotte FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 USA MLS | Charlotte FC | 2-2 HT 0-2 | FC Cincinnati |
| 11/08/25 USA MLS | FC Cincinnati | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Charlotte FC |
| 16/03/25 USA MLS | Charlotte FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FC Cincinnati |
| 14/07/24 USA MLS | FC Cincinnati | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Charlotte FC |
| 31/03/24 USA MLS | Charlotte FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Cincinnati |
| 24/09/23 USA MLS | FC Cincinnati | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Charlotte FC |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 47 | 17 | 53 |
| 2 | Inter Miami CF | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 43 | 43 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 32 | 38 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 29 | 37 |
| 5 | Charlotte FC | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 32 | 36 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 49 | 51 | 31 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 36 | 31 | 29 |
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 54 | 28 |
| 9 | Philadelphia Union | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 36 | 39 | 27 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 46 | 27 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 23 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 36 | 42 | 26 |
| 12 | DC United | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 28 | 36 | 25 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 39 | 23 |
| 14 | Atlanta United | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 40 | 22 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 48 | 21 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Cincinnati
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Nashville SC USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 20/08 | New York City FC USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 16/08 | Orlando City SC USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
1-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Columbus Crew USA MLS |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
3-2 | 4-3 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Orlando City SC USA MLS |
2-1 | 6-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | San Diego FC USA MLS |
1-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 14/05 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
1-1 | 3-5 | 1 | 5 | L |
Charlotte FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 30/08 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | DC United USA MLS |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 20/08 | Toronto FC USA MLS |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 16/08 | Columbus Crew USA MLS |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Chicago Fire USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 23/07 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | New England Revolution USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Toronto FC USA MLS |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Cincinnati win (52%). Probabilities: FC Cincinnati 52%, draw 23%, Charlotte FC 25%.
How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC?
The model expects 3.83 goals (FC Cincinnati 2.27 · Charlotte FC 1.56), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.