Football · USA MLS · 13/09, 01:30

Prediction: Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls

Team pages: Columbus Crew · New York Red Bulls

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Columbus Crew1.95

New York Red Bulls1.35

1X2

50% 24% 26%

Columbus Crew Draw New York Red Bulls

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Columbus Crew 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWDLLLLW

New York Red Bulls 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLLDLD

Head-to-head

Columbus Crew 2–2–2 New York Red Bulls (6 last)

New York Red Bulls3-2Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew3-1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls0-0Columbus Crew
New York Red Bulls2-2Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew0-1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls2-3Columbus Crew

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Columbus Crew 1481 · New York Red Bulls 1454

	Columbus Crew	Draw	New York Red Bulls
Our model	50%	24%	26%
Market	51%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Columbus Crew	New York Red Bulls
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	3.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:22 +12’	1.83	3.90	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Columbus Crew 2–2–2 New York Red Bulls

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	3-2 HT 2-1	Columbus Crew
19/10/25 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	3-1 HT 1-1	New York Red Bulls
31/08/25 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	0-0 HT 0-0	Columbus Crew
03/11/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	New York Red Bulls	2-2 HT 0-0	Columbus Crew
29/10/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	Columbus Crew	0-1 HT 0-1	New York Red Bulls
20/10/24 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	2-3 HT 0-2	Columbus Crew

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	23	16	5	2	47	17	53
2	Inter Miami CF	23	12	7	4	58	43	43
3	Chicago Fire	22	11	5	6	43	32	38
4	New England Revolution	23	11	4	8	37	29	37
5	Charlotte FC	23	10	6	7	40	32	36
6	FC Cincinnati	22	8	7	7	49	51	31
7	New York City FC	23	7	8	8	36	31	29
8	Orlando City SC	23	8	4	11	38	54	28
9	Philadelphia Union	23	7	6	10	36	39	27
10	New York Red Bulls	23	7	6	10	32	46	27
11	Toronto FC	23	5	11	7	36	42	26
12	DC United	22	5	10	7	28	36	25
13	Columbus Crew	23	6	5	12	34	39	23
14	Atlanta United	23	6	4	13	27	40	22
15	CF Montreal	23	5	6	12	30	48	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Columbus Crew	New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC	2-3 L	0-1 L
Charlotte FC	1-3 L	0-2 L
New York City FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Atlanta United	2-0 W	1-2 L
Philadelphia Union	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Columbus Crew (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Columbus Crew

DWLWDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
30/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-2	1-3	5	2	L
23/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	2-3	1	2	L
20/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
16/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	1-3	13	3	L
02/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
26/07	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	2-1	4	2	W
23/07	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
24/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
17/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	4	D

New York Red Bulls

DWLLWLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
30/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
23/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
20/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
16/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
02/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
23/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
24/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
17/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Columbus Crew win (50%). Probabilities: Columbus Crew 50%, draw 24%, New York Red Bulls 26%.

How many goals are expected in Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Columbus Crew 1.95 · New York Red Bulls 1.35), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.