Football · USA MLS · 13/09, 01:30

Prediction: DC United vs Atlanta United

Team pages: DC United · Atlanta United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

DC United1.61

Atlanta United1.29

1X2

44% 26% 30%

DC United Draw Atlanta United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

DC United 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LDDDWDDLLD

Atlanta United 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWWWLD

Head-to-head

DC United 1–4–1 Atlanta United (6 last)

Atlanta United0-0DC United
Atlanta United1-1DC United
DC United0-0Atlanta United
Atlanta United3-3DC United
DC United0-1Atlanta United
Atlanta United2-3DC United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DC United 1466 · Atlanta United 1472

	DC United	Draw	Atlanta United
Our model	44%	27%	30%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DC United	Atlanta United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.8	2.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:29 +65’	2.10	3.60	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · DC United 1–4–1 Atlanta United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 USA MLS	Atlanta United	0-0 HT 0-0	DC United
19/10/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	1-1 HT 1-0	DC United
06/07/25 USA MLS	DC United	0-0 HT 0-0	Atlanta United
27/07/24 Leagues Cup	Atlanta United	3-3 HT 2-3	DC United
20/06/24 USA MLS	DC United	0-1 HT 0-0	Atlanta United
12/05/24 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-3 HT 1-2	DC United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	23	16	5	2	47	17	53
2	Inter Miami CF	23	12	7	4	58	43	43
3	Chicago Fire	22	11	5	6	43	32	38
4	New England Revolution	23	11	4	8	37	29	37
5	Charlotte FC	23	10	6	7	40	32	36
6	FC Cincinnati	22	8	7	7	49	51	31
7	New York City FC	23	7	8	8	36	31	29
8	Orlando City SC	23	8	4	11	38	54	28
9	Philadelphia Union	23	7	6	10	36	39	27
10	New York Red Bulls	23	7	6	10	32	46	27
11	Toronto FC	23	5	11	7	36	42	26
12	DC United	22	5	10	7	28	36	25
13	Columbus Crew	23	6	5	12	34	39	23
14	Atlanta United	23	6	4	13	27	40	22
15	CF Montreal	23	5	6	12	30	48	21

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DC United	Atlanta United
Charlotte FC	1-3 L	0-2 L
New England Revolution	0-3 L	1-4 L
Nashville SC	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: DC United (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

DC United

LDDDWDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
23/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-3	9	5	L
20/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
16/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	8	5	D
26/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
23/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
24/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	7	D
17/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
14/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-3	7	5	L

Atlanta United

LLDLLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	6	9	D
30/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	11	2	L
24/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
16/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
02/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	2-3	2	6	L
26/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
23/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
18/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
24/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DC United vs Atlanta United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a DC United win (44%). Probabilities: DC United 44%, draw 26%, Atlanta United 30%.

How many goals are expected in DC United vs Atlanta United?

The model expects 2.9 goals (DC United 1.61 · Atlanta United 1.29), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in DC United vs Atlanta United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.