Football · USA MLS · 13/09, 01:30

Prediction: Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC

Team pages: Orlando City SC · Toronto FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Orlando City SC2.14

Toronto FC1.46

1X2

52% 23% 25%

Orlando City SC Draw Toronto FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Orlando City SC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWLDLWDW

Toronto FC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

LDDLDWDWDD

Head-to-head

Orlando City SC 4–2 Toronto FC (6 last)

Toronto FC4-2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC4-2Toronto FC
Toronto FC1-2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC1-2Toronto FC
Toronto FC0-2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC4-0Toronto FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orlando City SC 1514 · Toronto FC 1511

	Orlando City SC	Draw	Toronto FC
Our model	52%	22%	25%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Orlando City SC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orlando City SC	Toronto FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.6	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.10

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:22 +12’	1.80	4.10	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orlando City SC 4–0–2 Toronto FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/10/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	4-2 HT 2-0	Orlando City SC
02/03/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	4-2 HT 2-0	Toronto FC
04/07/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-2 HT 1-2	Orlando City SC
28/04/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-2 HT 1-0	Toronto FC
22/10/23 USA MLS	Toronto FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Orlando City SC
05/07/23 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	4-0 HT 2-0	Toronto FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	23	16	5	2	47	17	53
2	Inter Miami CF	23	12	7	4	58	43	43
3	Chicago Fire	22	11	5	6	43	32	38
4	New England Revolution	23	11	4	8	37	29	37
5	Charlotte FC	23	10	6	7	40	32	36
6	FC Cincinnati	22	8	7	7	49	51	31
7	New York City FC	23	7	8	8	36	31	29
8	Orlando City SC	23	8	4	11	38	54	28
9	Philadelphia Union	23	7	6	10	36	39	27
10	New York Red Bulls	23	7	6	10	32	46	27
11	Toronto FC	23	5	11	7	36	42	26
12	DC United	22	5	10	7	28	36	25
13	Columbus Crew	23	6	5	12	34	39	23
14	Atlanta United	23	6	4	13	27	40	22
15	CF Montreal	23	5	6	12	30	48	21

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orlando City SC

DLWWLDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
30/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	3-3	1	4	D
23/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
20/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
16/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
02/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	2-3	4	5	L
26/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
23/07	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	4-0	2	6	W
24/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-2	2-6	9	5	L
17/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	3	D

Toronto FC

LDDLDWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	4	D
30/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
23/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	6	2	D
16/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	3	W
01/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
26/07	DC United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
17/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orlando City SC win (52%). Probabilities: Orlando City SC 52%, draw 23%, Toronto FC 25%.

How many goals are expected in Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Orlando City SC 2.14 · Toronto FC 1.46), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.