Football · USA MLS · 13/09, 02:30

Prediction: FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers

Team pages: FC Dallas · Portland Timbers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.02Total

FC Dallas2.4

Portland Timbers1.62

1X2

54% 22% 24%

FC Dallas Draw Portland Timbers

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Dallas 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWWLDW

Portland Timbers 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWDLW

Head-to-head

FC Dallas 2–3–1 Portland Timbers (6 last)

Portland Timbers2-2FC Dallas
Portland Timbers2-2FC Dallas
FC Dallas2-0Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers0-0FC Dallas
FC Dallas3-2Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers1-0FC Dallas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Dallas 1541 · Portland Timbers 1521

	FC Dallas	Draw	Portland Timbers
Our model	54%	21%	25%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 4.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Dallas: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Dallas	Portland Timbers
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.1	2.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	2.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.10

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +3’	1.75	4.10	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Dallas 2–3–1 Portland Timbers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Dallas
28/09/25 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	2-2 HT 1-0	FC Dallas
10/08/25 USA MLS	FC Dallas	2-0 HT 1-0	Portland Timbers
07/10/24 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Dallas
05/07/24 USA MLS	FC Dallas	3-2 HT 0-1	Portland Timbers
12/06/23 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Dallas

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	22	13	4	5	49	21	43
2	Houston Dynamo	23	12	4	7	30	26	40
3	Los Angeles FC	24	10	7	7	38	24	37
4	FC Dallas	23	10	7	6	45	40	37
5	St. Louis City SC	23	10	7	6	36	31	37
6	San Jose Earthquakes	23	10	5	8	40	34	35
7	Colorado Rapids	23	10	1	12	31	31	31
8	Portland Timbers	23	9	4	10	44	43	31
9	San Diego FC	23	8	6	9	40	34	30
10	Real Salt Lake	22	8	5	9	36	35	29
11	Minnesota United	23	7	8	8	34	37	29
12	LA Galaxy	24	7	8	9	30	36	29
13	Seattle Sounders	22	7	6	9	24	29	27
14	Austin FC	23	6	7	10	29	42	25
15	Sporting Kansas City	23	4	3	16	23	58	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Dallas	Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake	4-3 W	2-1 W
Austin FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
San Diego FC	0-1 L	3-1 W
San Jose Earthquakes	3-2 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Dallas (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Dallas

WWDLDWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	3-2	4-3	3	1	W
31/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	3	3	D
23/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-4	0-5	3	6	L
20/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	3-1	4-3	3	6	W
17/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
02/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
23/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
24/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
17/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	3-2	4	6	W

Portland Timbers

LWDWWLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	3-2	5-4	4	4	W
30/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
23/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
20/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	3-1	0	3	W
17/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
02/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
26/07	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	14	4	W
23/07	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
17/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	5-1	8	2	W
24/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-3	1-3	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Dallas win (54%). Probabilities: FC Dallas 54%, draw 22%, Portland Timbers 24%.

How many goals are expected in FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?

The model expects 4.02 goals (FC Dallas 2.4 · Portland Timbers 1.62), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.