Football · USA MLS · 13/09, 02:30

Prediction: Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC

Team pages: Sporting Kansas City · Los Angeles FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Sporting Kansas City1.02

Los Angeles FC1.92

1X2

19% 23% 58%

Sporting Kansas City Draw Los Angeles FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Kansas City 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDLLL

Los Angeles FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLLDDD

Head-to-head

Sporting Kansas City 0–2–4 Los Angeles FC (6 last)

Los Angeles FC4-0Sporting Kansas City
Los Angeles FC3-1Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City0-2Los Angeles FC
Sporting Kansas City0-3Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC1-1Sporting Kansas City
Los Angeles FC0-0Sporting Kansas City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Kansas City 1426 · Los Angeles FC 1529

	Sporting Kansas City	Draw	Los Angeles FC
Our model	19%	24%	57%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Los Angeles FC (rating 1426 vs 1529).
H2H favours Los Angeles FC: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Kansas City	Los Angeles FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.4	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	2.6 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.20

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +3’	4.75	4.20	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Kansas City 0–2–4 Los Angeles FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	4-0 HT 3-0	Sporting Kansas City
09/06/25 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Sporting Kansas City
23/03/25 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	0-2 HT 0-1	Los Angeles FC
06/10/24 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	0-3 HT 0-2	Los Angeles FC
26/09/24 USA US Open Cup	Los Angeles FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Sporting Kansas City
10/03/24 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Kansas City

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	22	13	4	5	49	21	43
2	Houston Dynamo	23	12	4	7	30	26	40
3	Los Angeles FC	24	10	7	7	38	24	37
4	FC Dallas	23	10	7	6	45	40	37
5	St. Louis City SC	23	10	7	6	36	31	37
6	San Jose Earthquakes	23	10	5	8	40	34	35
7	Colorado Rapids	23	10	1	12	31	31	31
8	Portland Timbers	23	9	4	10	44	43	31
9	San Diego FC	23	8	6	9	40	34	30
10	Real Salt Lake	22	8	5	9	36	35	29
11	Minnesota United	23	7	8	8	34	37	29
12	LA Galaxy	24	7	8	9	30	36	29
13	Seattle Sounders	22	7	6	9	24	29	27
14	Austin FC	23	6	7	10	29	42	25
15	Sporting Kansas City	23	4	3	16	23	58	15

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Kansas City	Los Angeles FC
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-3 L	1-1 D
Colorado Rapids	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Los Angeles FC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Kansas City

LLWLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-3	3-4	7	1	L
30/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
24/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
20/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
16/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
02/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
26/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-3	0-4	1	2	L
23/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
17/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
24/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L

Los Angeles FC

WWWWDLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-1	2-2	8	3	D
30/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
23/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
20/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
16/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	9	8	L
02/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
26/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	3-0	4-0	5	2	W
23/07	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	0	W
18/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
25/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Los Angeles FC win (58%). Probabilities: Sporting Kansas City 19%, draw 23%, Los Angeles FC 58%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Sporting Kansas City 1.02 · Los Angeles FC 1.92), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.