Football · USA MLS · 13/09, 02:30

Prediction: St. Louis City SC vs Minnesota United

Team pages: St. Louis City SC · Minnesota United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

St. Louis City SC1.87

Minnesota United1.43

1X2

47% 25% 28%

St. Louis City SC Draw Minnesota United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

St. Louis City SC 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWDWDW

Minnesota United 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDDDLWDL

Head-to-head

St. Louis City SC 1–5 Minnesota United (6 last)

St. Louis City SC1-2Minnesota United
Minnesota United3-2St. Louis City SC
Minnesota United3-0St. Louis City SC
Minnesota United4-1St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC1-3Minnesota United
Minnesota United1-2St. Louis City SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St. Louis City SC 1585 · Minnesota United 1480

	St. Louis City SC	Draw	Minnesota United
Our model	47%	24%	29%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1585 vs 1480).
H2H favours Minnesota United: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St. Louis City SC	Minnesota United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.1	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.8	2.9 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +4’	2.00	3.70	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St. Louis City SC 1–0–5 Minnesota United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/07/25 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	1-2 HT 1-0	Minnesota United
22/05/25 USA US Open Cup	Minnesota United	3-2 HT 1-0	St. Louis City SC
18/05/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	3-0 HT 1-0	St. Louis City SC
20/10/24 USA MLS	Minnesota United	4-1 HT 1-0	St. Louis City SC
15/09/24 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	1-3 HT 1-1	Minnesota United
24/09/23 USA MLS	Minnesota United	1-2 HT 0-0	St. Louis City SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	22	13	4	5	49	21	43
2	Houston Dynamo	23	12	4	7	30	26	40
3	Los Angeles FC	24	10	7	7	38	24	37
4	FC Dallas	23	10	7	6	45	40	37
5	St. Louis City SC	23	10	7	6	36	31	37
6	San Jose Earthquakes	23	10	5	8	40	34	35
7	Colorado Rapids	23	10	1	12	31	31	31
8	Portland Timbers	23	9	4	10	44	43	31
9	San Diego FC	23	8	6	9	40	34	30
10	Real Salt Lake	22	8	5	9	36	35	29
11	Minnesota United	23	7	8	8	34	37	29
12	LA Galaxy	24	7	8	9	30	36	29
13	Seattle Sounders	22	7	6	9	24	29	27
14	Austin FC	23	6	7	10	29	42	25
15	Sporting Kansas City	23	4	3	16	23	58	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St. Louis City SC	Minnesota United
Vancouver Whitecaps	3-1 W	0-0 D
Sporting Kansas City	1-1 D	1-2 L
San Jose Earthquakes	3-1 W	5-1 W
Real Salt Lake	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St. Louis City SC

WWWWDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-1	3-1	2	7	W
31/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
23/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
20/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
02/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
26/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
23/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
17/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
23/05	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	2	2	W

Minnesota United

LDLDDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-3	4-5	3	4	L
30/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	3-3	8	4	D
23/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	3-1	5-1	3	1	W
20/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
16/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
02/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
26/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
24/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
17/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-2	11	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St. Louis City SC vs Minnesota United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St. Louis City SC win (47%). Probabilities: St. Louis City SC 47%, draw 25%, Minnesota United 28%.

How many goals are expected in St. Louis City SC vs Minnesota United?

The model expects 3.29 goals (St. Louis City SC 1.87 · Minnesota United 1.43), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in St. Louis City SC vs Minnesota United?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.