Football · USA MLS · 27/09, 03:30

Prediction: Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution

Team pages: Real Salt Lake · New England Revolution

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Real Salt Lake1.81

New England Revolution1.46

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Real Salt Lake Draw New England Revolution

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Salt Lake 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLDLLL

New England Revolution 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Real Salt Lake 3–2–1 New England Revolution (6 last)

Real Salt Lake2-0New England Revolution
New England Revolution2-3Real Salt Lake
New England Revolution0-0Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake4-1New England Revolution
New England Revolution4-0Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake0-0New England Revolution

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Salt Lake 1424 · New England Revolution 1550

	Real Salt Lake	Draw	New England Revolution
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New England Revolution (rating 1424 vs 1550).
H2H favours Real Salt Lake: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Salt Lake	New England Revolution
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.1	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.70

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +4’	2.10	3.70	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Salt Lake 3–2–1 New England Revolution

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/09/24 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-0 HT 1-0	New England Revolution
13/03/22 USA MLS	New England Revolution	2-3 HT 1-0	Real Salt Lake
22/09/19 USA MLS	New England Revolution	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake
19/10/18 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	4-1 HT 3-0	New England Revolution
14/05/17 USA MLS	New England Revolution	4-0 HT 4-0	Real Salt Lake
17/07/16 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	0-0 HT 0-0	New England Revolution

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	44
3	St. Louis City SC	26	12	8	6	45	36	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	36
8	LA Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	32
10	San Diego FC	25	8	6	11	42	42	30
11	Austin FC	26	7	9	10	32	44	30
12	Real Salt Lake	25	8	5	12	37	42	29
13	Seattle Sounders	24	7	8	9	28	33	29
14	Minnesota United	26	7	8	11	39	46	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Salt Lake	New England Revolution
New York City FC	0-2 L	2-1 W
Houston Dynamo	1-2 L	0-2 L
Orlando City SC	1-2 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: New England Revolution (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Salt Lake

LDDLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
13/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
10/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
06/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
30/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
23/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-3	3-4	6	6	L
16/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
02/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
26/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-2	5	4	L

New England Revolution

DLLWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	4-2	10	4	W
13/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
10/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
30/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
20/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
16/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
08/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
02/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Salt Lake win (45%). Probabilities: Real Salt Lake 45%, draw 25%, New England Revolution 30%.

How many goals are expected in Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Real Salt Lake 1.81 · New England Revolution 1.46), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.