Football · USA MLS · 27/09, 02:30

Prediction: Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United

Team pages: Seattle Sounders · Minnesota United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Seattle Sounders1.79

Minnesota United1.43

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Seattle Sounders Draw Minnesota United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Seattle Sounders 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

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Minnesota United 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Seattle Sounders 1–3–2 Minnesota United (6 last)

Minnesota United0-0Seattle Sounders
Minnesota United3-3Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders4-2Minnesota United
Minnesota United0-0Seattle Sounders
Minnesota United1-0Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders2-3Minnesota United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Seattle Sounders 1444 · Minnesota United 1445

	Seattle Sounders	Draw	Minnesota United
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Minnesota United: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Seattle Sounders	Minnesota United
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +1’	2.05	3.70	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Seattle Sounders 1–3–2 Minnesota United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 USA MLS	Minnesota United	0-0 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders
08/11/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	3-3 HT 1-2	Seattle Sounders
04/11/25 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	4-2 HT 3-2	Minnesota United
28/10/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	0-0 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders
17/08/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	1-0 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders
02/06/25 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	2-3 HT 0-0	Minnesota United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	44
3	St. Louis City SC	26	12	8	6	45	36	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	36
8	LA Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	32
10	San Diego FC	25	8	6	11	42	42	30
11	Austin FC	26	7	9	10	32	44	30
12	Real Salt Lake	25	8	5	12	37	42	29
13	Seattle Sounders	24	7	8	9	28	33	29
14	Minnesota United	26	7	8	11	39	46	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Seattle Sounders	Minnesota United
LA Galaxy	1-1 D	2-3 L
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-2 L	0-0 D
Portland Timbers	1-2 L	4-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Seattle Sounders

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	3-3	6	1	D
13/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
06/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
29/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	1	D
23/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
20/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
17/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
02/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
26/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
23/07	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-3	4	3	L

Minnesota United

DDDLWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-1	2-3	5	2	L
13/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-3	2-4	5	3	L
10/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
06/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-3	4-5	3	4	L
30/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	3-3	8	4	D
23/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	3-1	5-1	3	1	W
20/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
16/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
02/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
26/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Seattle Sounders win (45%). Probabilities: Seattle Sounders 45%, draw 25%, Minnesota United 30%.

How many goals are expected in Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Seattle Sounders 1.79 · Minnesota United 1.43), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.