Football · USA MLS · 27/09, 01:30

Prediction: Atlanta United vs New York City FC

Team pages: Atlanta United · New York City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Atlanta United1.54

New York City FC1.21

1X2

45% 26% 29%

Atlanta United Draw New York City FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlanta United 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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New York City FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atlanta United 1–4–1 New York City FC (6 last)

New York City FC4-0Atlanta United
Atlanta United4-3New York City FC
Atlanta United2-2New York City FC
New York City FC1-1Atlanta United
Atlanta United2-2New York City FC
New York City FC1-1Atlanta United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlanta United 1504 · New York City FC 1460

	Atlanta United	Draw	New York City FC
Our model	44%	28%	29%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atlanta United (rating 1504 vs 1460).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlanta United	New York City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.17 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	2.75 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:15 +2’	2.30	3.60	2.75
16:57 +11’	2.05▼	3.70▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:42 +51’	2.13	3.56	3.22
05:45 +51’	2.15▲	3.61▲	3.26▲
10:26 +66’	2.17▲	3.62▲	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United 1–4–1 New York City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/25 USA MLS	New York City FC	4-0 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
30/03/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	4-3 HT 1-1	New York City FC
18/07/24 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-2 HT 2-0	New York City FC
07/04/24 USA MLS	New York City FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
22/06/23 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-2 HT 1-1	New York City FC
09/04/23 USA MLS	New York City FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Atlanta United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	26	17	6	3	53	21	57
2	New England Revolution	26	14	4	8	45	33	46
3	Inter Miami CF	25	12	9	4	61	46	45
4	Charlotte FC	26	12	7	7	47	37	43
5	Chicago Fire	25	11	6	8	45	38	39
6	Philadelphia Union	26	10	6	10	50	42	36
7	Orlando City SC	26	10	4	12	46	60	34
8	New York Red Bulls	26	9	6	11	34	48	33
9	FC Cincinnati	25	8	9	8	54	61	33
10	New York City FC	26	8	8	10	39	34	32
11	DC United	25	6	11	8	31	39	29
12	Toronto FC	26	6	11	9	39	49	29
13	Columbus Crew	26	7	5	14	37	42	26
14	Atlanta United	26	7	5	14	30	43	26
15	CF Montreal	26	5	6	15	31	53	21

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlanta United	New York City FC
New York Red Bulls	2-1 W	0-1 L
Philadelphia Union	2-3 L	2-3 L
New England Revolution	1-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlanta United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
13/09	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
10/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
06/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	6	9	D
30/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	11	2	L
24/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
16/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
02/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	2-3	2	6	L
26/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	1-4	6	4	L

New York City FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
13/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
10/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	12	2	L
05/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
30/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
20/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
17/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	2-3	8	7	L
01/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
26/07	Chicago Fire USA MLS	3-1	3-1	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlanta United vs New York City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United win (45%). Probabilities: Atlanta United 45%, draw 26%, New York City FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Atlanta United vs New York City FC?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Atlanta United 1.54 · New York City FC 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlanta United vs New York City FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.