Football · USA MLS · 27/09, 01:30

Prediction: Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire

Team pages: Charlotte FC · Chicago Fire

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Charlotte FC1.8

Chicago Fire1.65

1X2

41% 25% 35%

Charlotte FC Draw Chicago Fire

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Charlotte FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWDWDW

Chicago Fire 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDDDLL

Head-to-head

Charlotte FC 3–3 Chicago Fire (6 last)

Chicago Fire2-1Charlotte FC
Chicago Fire3-2Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC1-4Chicago Fire
Charlotte FC4-3Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire0-1Charlotte FC
Chicago Fire0-2Charlotte FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlotte FC 1569 · Chicago Fire 1498

	Charlotte FC	Draw	Chicago Fire
Our model	41%	24%	35%
Market	41%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte FC (rating 1569 vs 1498).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlotte FC	Chicago Fire
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.75

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.31
X	3.80 → 3.75▼	Pinn 3.99 ★
2	3.10 → 2.70▼	Pinn 2.73

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:14 +3’	2.05	3.80	3.10
17:05 +3’	2.30▲	3.75▼	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:47 +46’	2.31	3.99	2.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte FC 3–0–3 Chicago Fire

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	2-1 HT 1-1	Charlotte FC
29/06/25 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	3-2 HT 3-0	Charlotte FC
18/05/25 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	1-4 HT 0-1	Chicago Fire
03/10/24 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	4-3 HT 3-1	Chicago Fire
16/05/24 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-1 HT 0-0	Charlotte FC
08/10/23 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-2 HT 0-1	Charlotte FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	26	17	6	3	53	21	57
2	New England Revolution	26	14	4	8	45	33	46
3	Inter Miami CF	25	12	9	4	61	46	45
4	Charlotte FC	26	12	7	7	47	37	43
5	Chicago Fire	25	11	6	8	45	38	39
6	Philadelphia Union	26	10	6	10	50	42	36
7	Orlando City SC	26	10	4	12	46	60	34
8	New York Red Bulls	26	9	6	11	34	48	33
9	FC Cincinnati	25	8	9	8	54	61	33
10	New York City FC	26	8	8	10	39	34	32
11	DC United	25	6	11	8	31	39	29
12	Toronto FC	26	6	11	9	39	49	29
13	Columbus Crew	26	7	5	14	37	42	26
14	Atlanta United	26	7	5	14	30	43	26
15	CF Montreal	26	5	6	15	31	53	21

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlotte FC	Chicago Fire
Toronto FC	3-3 D	4-4 D
New York Red Bulls	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte FC (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charlotte FC

WLWDWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	DC United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
13/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	3-3	3	3	D
10/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
06/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
30/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
23/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
20/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-3	5	2	D
16/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	1	3	W
02/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
26/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	2-0	2-0	1	5	W

Chicago Fire

LWWWDDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
13/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	13	4	L
10/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-2	4-4	3	4	D
29/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-2	7	1	D
23/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
17/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	4	W
02/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
26/07	New York City FC USA MLS	1-3	1-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte FC win (41%). Probabilities: Charlotte FC 41%, draw 25%, Chicago Fire 35%.

How many goals are expected in Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Charlotte FC 1.8 · Chicago Fire 1.65), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.