Football · USA MLS · 27/09, 01:30

Prediction: CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati

Team pages: CF Montreal · FC Cincinnati

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

CF Montreal1.79

FC Cincinnati1.85

1X2

37% 24% 39%

CF Montreal Draw FC Cincinnati

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

CF Montreal 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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FC Cincinnati 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDLLDD

Head-to-head

CF Montreal 1–5 FC Cincinnati (6 last)

FC Cincinnati4-3CF Montreal
FC Cincinnati3-0CF Montreal
CF Montreal1-3FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati1-0CF Montreal
FC Cincinnati4-1CF Montreal
CF Montreal2-1FC Cincinnati

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CF Montreal 1430 · FC Cincinnati 1511

	CF Montreal	Draw	FC Cincinnati
Our model	37%	24%	39%
Market	37%	25%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Cincinnati (rating 1430 vs 1511).
H2H favours FC Cincinnati: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CF Montreal	FC Cincinnati
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.1	1.8 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	2.2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.80

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.88
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.56 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:16 +1’	2.55	3.80	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:42	2.38	3.88	2.68
08:25 +10’	2.62▲	3.88	2.44▼
09:07 +43’	2.49▼	3.88	2.56▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CF Montreal 1–0–5 FC Cincinnati

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	4-3 HT 1-2	CF Montreal
19/10/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	3-0 HT 1-0	CF Montreal
26/06/25 USA MLS	CF Montreal	1-3 HT 0-1	FC Cincinnati
24/01/25 World Club Friendlies	FC Cincinnati	1-0	CF Montreal
01/09/24 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	4-1 HT 1-0	CF Montreal
14/04/24 USA MLS	CF Montreal	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Cincinnati

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	26	17	6	3	53	21	57
2	New England Revolution	26	14	4	8	45	33	46
3	Inter Miami CF	25	12	9	4	61	46	45
4	Charlotte FC	26	12	7	7	47	37	43
5	Chicago Fire	25	11	6	8	45	38	39
6	Philadelphia Union	26	10	6	10	50	42	36
7	Orlando City SC	26	10	4	12	46	60	34
8	New York Red Bulls	26	9	6	11	34	48	33
9	FC Cincinnati	25	8	9	8	54	61	33
10	New York City FC	26	8	8	10	39	34	32
11	DC United	25	6	11	8	31	39	29
12	Toronto FC	26	6	11	9	39	49	29
13	Columbus Crew	26	7	5	14	37	42	26
14	Atlanta United	26	7	5	14	30	43	26
15	CF Montreal	26	5	6	15	31	53	21

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CF Montreal	FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew	0-2 L	1-2 L
Charlotte FC	1-2 L	3-3 D
Philadelphia Union	0-2 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Cincinnati (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CF Montreal

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
13/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
10/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
06/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-0	0-2	1	8	L
30/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	1-7	6	3	L
23/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
20/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
16/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
02/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
26/07	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	2	L

FC Cincinnati

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	2-2	7	0	D
13/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	12	3	D
10/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-2	0-5	1	3	L
30/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
23/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
20/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
16/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
02/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	4-2	9	3	W
26/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
23/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-2	4-3	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Cincinnati win (39%). Probabilities: CF Montreal 37%, draw 24%, FC Cincinnati 39%.

How many goals are expected in CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?

The model expects 3.65 goals (CF Montreal 1.79 · FC Cincinnati 1.85), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.