Football · USA MLS · 27/09, 01:30

Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC

Team pages: Philadelphia Union · Orlando City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

Philadelphia Union2.67

Orlando City SC1.45

1X2

62% 20% 18%

Philadelphia Union Draw Orlando City SC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Philadelphia Union 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWWWWW

Orlando City SC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDWWWL

Head-to-head

Philadelphia Union 1–2–3 Orlando City SC (6 last)

Orlando City SC4-3Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union0-0Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC2-4Philadelphia Union
Orlando City SC2-1Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union2-3Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC2-2Philadelphia Union

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union 1587 · Orlando City SC 1507

	Philadelphia Union	Draw	Orlando City SC
Our model	63%	19%	19%
Market	62%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Philadelphia Union (rating 1587 vs 1507).
H2H favours Orlando City SC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Philadelphia Union	Orlando City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.1	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.26 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.86

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +4’	1.50	4.50	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:43 +60’	1.42	5.18	5.75
04:47 +46’	1.44▲	5.26▲	5.86▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union 1–2–3 Orlando City SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	4-3 HT 2-0	Philadelphia Union
06/04/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	0-0 HT 0-0	Orlando City SC
23/02/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	2-4 HT 1-1	Philadelphia Union
03/10/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	2-1 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union
12/05/24 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	2-3 HT 1-2	Orlando City SC
22/06/23 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	2-2 HT 1-0	Philadelphia Union

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	26	17	6	3	53	21	57
2	New England Revolution	26	14	4	8	45	33	46
3	Inter Miami CF	25	12	9	4	61	46	45
4	Charlotte FC	26	12	7	7	47	37	43
5	Chicago Fire	25	11	6	8	45	38	39
6	Philadelphia Union	26	10	6	10	50	42	36
7	Orlando City SC	26	10	4	12	46	60	34
8	New York Red Bulls	26	9	6	11	34	48	33
9	FC Cincinnati	25	8	9	8	54	61	33
10	New York City FC	26	8	8	10	39	34	32
11	DC United	25	6	11	8	31	39	29
12	Toronto FC	26	6	11	9	39	49	29
13	Columbus Crew	26	7	5	14	37	42	26
14	Atlanta United	26	7	5	14	30	43	26
15	CF Montreal	26	5	6	15	31	53	21

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Philadelphia Union	Orlando City SC
San Diego FC	5-0 W	1-0 W
FC Cincinnati	5-0 W	1-1 D
New York Red Bulls	3-1 W	2-3 L
Atlanta United	3-2 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Philadelphia Union (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Philadelphia Union

WWWDDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-3	4-3	4	7	W
14/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	5-0	4	4	W
10/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-0	5-0	7	3	W
06/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	8	W
30/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
23/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	4	8	D
17/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-2	3-2	4	7	W
02/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	3-2	12	6	W
26/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	1	W

Orlando City SC

WLDLWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	2-4	3	4	L
13/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
10/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-1	3-2	5	3	W
06/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
30/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	3-3	1	4	D
23/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
20/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
16/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
02/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	2-3	4	5	L
26/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union win (62%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union 62%, draw 20%, Orlando City SC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC?

The model expects 4.12 goals (Philadelphia Union 2.67 · Orlando City SC 1.45), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.