Football · USA MLS · 27/09, 02:30

Prediction: Austin FC vs San Diego FC

Team pages: Austin FC · San Diego FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Austin FC1.55

San Diego FC1.32

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Austin FC Draw San Diego FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Austin FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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San Diego FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Austin FC 1–2 San Diego FC (3 last)

San Diego FC5-0Austin FC
San Diego FC2-0Austin FC
Austin FC2-1San Diego FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Austin FC 1514 · San Diego FC 1490

	Austin FC	Draw	San Diego FC
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	42%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours San Diego FC: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Austin FC	San Diego FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	2.6 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.70

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +10’	2.20	3.70	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Austin FC 1–0–2 San Diego FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 USA MLS	San Diego FC	5-0 HT 2-0	Austin FC
01/06/25 USA MLS	San Diego FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Austin FC
23/03/25 USA MLS	Austin FC	2-1 HT 2-1	San Diego FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	44
3	St. Louis City SC	26	12	8	6	45	36	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	36
8	LA Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	32
10	San Diego FC	25	8	6	11	42	42	30
11	Austin FC	26	7	9	10	32	44	30
12	Real Salt Lake	25	8	5	12	37	42	29
13	Seattle Sounders	24	7	8	9	28	33	29
14	Minnesota United	26	7	8	11	39	46	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Austin FC	San Diego FC
FC Dallas	0-0 D	1-0 W
Colorado Rapids	1-1 D	3-0 W
San Jose Earthquakes	1-1 D	2-3 L
Portland Timbers	2-1 W	1-3 L
Philadelphia Union	1-1 D	0-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Austin FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Austin FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
14/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	7	W
10/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
06/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
30/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
23/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-1	5	1	W
17/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
02/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
26/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-3	0-3	6	4	L

San Diego FC

LWDWLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-5	11	4	L
10/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-3	2-3	1	10	L
06/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
30/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
23/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
20/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-3	7	3	L
16/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
02/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
26/07	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
23/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	3	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Austin FC vs San Diego FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Austin FC win (42%). Probabilities: Austin FC 42%, draw 26%, San Diego FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Austin FC vs San Diego FC?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Austin FC 1.55 · San Diego FC 1.32), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Austin FC vs San Diego FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.