Football · USA MLS · 27/09, 02:30

Prediction: FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC

Team pages: FC Dallas · Los Angeles FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

FC Dallas1.42

Los Angeles FC1.34

1X2

39% 26% 35%

FC Dallas Draw Los Angeles FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Dallas 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDWWWD

Los Angeles FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Dallas 2–1–3 Los Angeles FC (6 last)

Los Angeles FC1-0FC Dallas
FC Dallas1-1Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC2-0FC Dallas
FC Dallas3-1Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC1-0FC Dallas
FC Dallas2-0Los Angeles FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Dallas 1544 · Los Angeles FC 1507

	FC Dallas	Draw	Los Angeles FC
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Los Angeles FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Dallas	Los Angeles FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	2.2 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.70

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.49 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.79
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +10’	2.38	3.70	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:45 +568’	2.49	3.79	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Dallas 2–1–3 Los Angeles FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Dallas
24/08/25 USA MLS	FC Dallas	1-1 HT 1-1	Los Angeles FC
13/07/25 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Dallas
22/09/24 USA MLS	FC Dallas	3-1 HT 1-0	Los Angeles FC
02/06/24 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Dallas
02/07/23 USA MLS	FC Dallas	2-0 HT 0-0	Los Angeles FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	44
3	St. Louis City SC	26	12	8	6	45	36	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	36
8	LA Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	32
10	San Diego FC	25	8	6	11	42	42	30
11	Austin FC	26	7	9	10	32	44	30
12	Real Salt Lake	25	8	5	12	37	42	29
13	Seattle Sounders	24	7	8	9	28	33	29
14	Minnesota United	26	7	8	11	39	46	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Dallas	Los Angeles FC
Portland Timbers	2-1 W	1-1 D
Sporting Kansas City	4-3 W	1-3 L
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-5 L	1-1 D
Real Salt Lake	4-3 W	2-2 D
San Diego FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Dallas (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Dallas

LDWWLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
13/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
10/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
06/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	3-2	4-3	3	1	W
31/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	3	3	D
23/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-4	0-5	3	6	L
20/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	3-1	4-3	3	6	W
17/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
02/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	4	2	L

Los Angeles FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
13/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-2	1-3	13	4	L
10/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
06/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-1	2-2	8	3	D
30/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
23/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
20/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
16/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	9	8	L
02/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
26/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	3-0	4-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Dallas win (39%). Probabilities: FC Dallas 39%, draw 26%, Los Angeles FC 35%.

How many goals are expected in FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC?

The model expects 2.76 goals (FC Dallas 1.42 · Los Angeles FC 1.34), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.