Football · USA MLS · 27/09, 02:30

Prediction: Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City

Team pages: Houston Dynamo · Sporting Kansas City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Houston Dynamo1.96

Sporting Kansas City0.81

1X2

64% 22% 14%

Houston Dynamo Draw Sporting Kansas City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Houston Dynamo 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDDWLD

Sporting Kansas City 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLLLWL

Head-to-head

Houston Dynamo 3–2–1 Sporting Kansas City (6 last)

Sporting Kansas City0-2Houston Dynamo
Sporting Kansas City0-0Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo1-3Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City1-2Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo1-1Sporting Kansas City
Houston Dynamo1-0Sporting Kansas City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Houston Dynamo 1545 · Sporting Kansas City 1438

	Houston Dynamo	Draw	Sporting Kansas City
Our model	63%	23%	14%
Market	64%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo (rating 1545 vs 1438).
H2H favours Houston Dynamo: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Houston Dynamo	Sporting Kansas City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.6	1.3 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Pinn 1.48
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.66 ★
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +3’	1.45	4.50	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:42 +571’	1.48	4.66	5.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dynamo 3–2–1 Sporting Kansas City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	0-2 HT 0-0	Houston Dynamo
19/10/25 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	0-0 HT 0-0	Houston Dynamo
01/06/25 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-3 HT 1-1	Sporting Kansas City
12/05/24 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	1-2 HT 0-1	Houston Dynamo
25/02/24 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-1 HT 0-0	Sporting Kansas City
27/11/23 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-0 HT 1-0	Sporting Kansas City

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	44
3	St. Louis City SC	26	12	8	6	45	36	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	36
8	LA Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	32
10	San Diego FC	25	8	6	11	42	42	30
11	Austin FC	26	7	9	10	32	44	30
12	Real Salt Lake	25	8	5	12	37	42	29
13	Seattle Sounders	24	7	8	9	28	33	29
14	Minnesota United	26	7	8	11	39	46	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	18

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Houston Dynamo	Sporting Kansas City
St. Louis City SC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Vancouver Whitecaps	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Houston Dynamo

WWWWLDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	0	D
13/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
10/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-1	1	5	W
06/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
30/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
23/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
20/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
16/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
08/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	3	W

Sporting Kansas City

WLLLDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	3-0	3-4	3	7	L
13/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
06/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-3	3-4	7	1	L
30/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
24/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
20/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
16/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
02/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
26/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-3	0-4	1	2	L
23/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Houston Dynamo win (64%). Probabilities: Houston Dynamo 64%, draw 22%, Sporting Kansas City 14%.

How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Houston Dynamo 1.96 · Sporting Kansas City 0.81), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.