Football · USA MLS · 27/09, 02:30

Prediction: Nashville SC vs Toronto FC

Team pages: Nashville SC · Toronto FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

Nashville SC2.29

Toronto FC1.15

1X2

62% 21% 17%

Nashville SC Draw Toronto FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Nashville SC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWDLDW

Toronto FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDWDDWLL

Head-to-head

Nashville SC 4–2 Toronto FC (6 last)

Toronto FC2-1Nashville SC
Nashville SC1-0Toronto FC
Toronto FC1-2Nashville SC
Toronto FC1-2Nashville SC
Nashville SC2-0Toronto FC
Nashville SC1-2Toronto FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nashville SC 1548 · Toronto FC 1501

	Nashville SC	Draw	Toronto FC
Our model	62%	21%	17%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nashville SC (rating 1548 vs 1501).
H2H favours Nashville SC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nashville SC	Toronto FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	1.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.3	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.33

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.88 ★
2	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.93

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +2’	1.50	4.33	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:45 +508’	1.46	4.88	5.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nashville SC 4–0–2 Toronto FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/09/26 USA MLS	Toronto FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Nashville SC
20/07/25 USA MLS	Nashville SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Toronto FC
25/05/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Nashville SC
20/06/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Nashville SC
16/05/24 USA MLS	Nashville SC	2-0 HT 0-0	Toronto FC
02/02/24 World Club Friendlies	Nashville SC	1-2	Toronto FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	26	17	6	3	53	21	57
2	New England Revolution	26	14	4	8	45	33	46
3	Inter Miami CF	25	12	9	4	61	46	45
4	Charlotte FC	26	12	7	7	47	37	43
5	Chicago Fire	25	11	6	8	45	38	39
6	Philadelphia Union	26	10	6	10	50	42	36
7	Orlando City SC	26	10	4	12	46	60	34
8	New York Red Bulls	26	9	6	11	34	48	33
9	FC Cincinnati	25	8	9	8	54	61	33
10	New York City FC	26	8	8	10	39	34	32
11	DC United	25	6	11	8	31	39	29
12	Toronto FC	26	6	11	9	39	49	29
13	Columbus Crew	26	7	5	14	37	42	26
14	Atlanta United	26	7	5	14	30	43	26
15	CF Montreal	26	5	6	15	31	53	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nashville SC	Toronto FC
Chicago Fire	3-0 W	4-4 D
Inter Miami CF	2-2 D	2-1 W
New York City FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
DC United	2-2 D	1-2 L
Orlando City SC	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nashville SC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nashville SC

LDWWWWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
13/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
10/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	8	1	L
05/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
30/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	4-0	6	5	W
23/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	3-2	8	2	W
20/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
16/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	4-1	10	4	W
02/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
26/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	1	L

Toronto FC

LDWDWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
13/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
10/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
06/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	4	D
30/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
23/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	6	2	D
16/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	3	W
01/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
26/07	DC United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nashville SC vs Toronto FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nashville SC win (62%). Probabilities: Nashville SC 62%, draw 21%, Toronto FC 17%.

How many goals are expected in Nashville SC vs Toronto FC?

The model expects 3.44 goals (Nashville SC 2.29 · Toronto FC 1.15), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nashville SC vs Toronto FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.