Football · USA MLS · 10/10, 20:30

Prediction: Chicago Fire vs New York City FC

Team pages: Chicago Fire · New York City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Chicago Fire1.85

New York City FC1.18

1X2

52% 24% 23%

Chicago Fire Draw New York City FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chicago Fire 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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New York City FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chicago Fire 0–2–4 New York City FC (6 last)

New York City FC3-1Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire1-3New York City FC
New York City FC3-1Chicago Fire
New York City FC2-2Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire0-0New York City FC
New York City FC1-0Chicago Fire

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chicago Fire 1501 · New York City FC 1465

	Chicago Fire	Draw	New York City FC
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	53%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours New York City FC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chicago Fire	New York City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 4.6	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.90

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +4’	1.75	3.90	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire 0–2–4 New York City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 USA MLS	New York City FC	3-1 HT 3-1	Chicago Fire
14/09/25 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-3 HT 1-1	New York City FC
25/05/25 USA MLS	New York City FC	3-1 HT 0-1	Chicago Fire
25/08/24 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Chicago Fire
14/07/24 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-0 HT 0-0	New York City FC
22/10/23 USA MLS	New York City FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Chicago Fire

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	18	6	3	55	21	60
2	New England Revolution	27	14	4	9	45	36	46
3	Inter Miami CF	27	12	10	5	64	50	46
4	Charlotte FC	27	12	7	8	47	38	43
5	Chicago Fire	26	12	6	8	46	38	42
6	Philadelphia Union	27	11	6	10	54	44	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	10	4	13	48	64	34
8	New York Red Bulls	27	9	6	12	34	51	33
9	New York City FC	27	8	9	10	41	36	33
10	FC Cincinnati	26	8	9	9	55	64	33
11	DC United	26	6	12	8	34	42	30
12	Columbus Crew	27	8	5	14	39	43	29
13	Toronto FC	27	6	11	10	39	51	29
14	Atlanta United	27	7	6	14	32	45	27
15	CF Montreal	27	6	6	15	34	54	24

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chicago Fire	New York City FC
Nashville SC	0-3 L	0-0 D
New England Revolution	1-2 L	1-2 L
Toronto FC	4-4 D	1-1 D
New York Red Bulls	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chicago Fire

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
20/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
13/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	13	4	L
10/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-2	4-4	3	4	D
29/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-2	7	1	D
23/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
17/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	4	W
02/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W

New York City FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
19/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
13/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
10/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	12	2	L
05/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
30/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
20/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
17/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	2-3	8	7	L
01/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chicago Fire win (52%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire 52%, draw 24%, New York City FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Chicago Fire 1.85 · New York City FC 1.18), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.