Football · USA MLS · 11/10, 01:30

Prediction: New York Red Bulls vs San Diego FC

Team pages: New York Red Bulls · San Diego FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

New York Red Bulls1.52

San Diego FC1.55

1X2

37% 25% 38%

New York Red Bulls Draw San Diego FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

New York Red Bulls 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDLWWL

San Diego FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLLLDD

Head-to-head

New York Red Bulls 0–1 San Diego FC (1 last)

San Diego FC6-0New York Red Bulls

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Red Bulls 1470 · San Diego FC 1485

	New York Red Bulls	Draw	San Diego FC
Our model	36%	26%	38%
Market	37%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Red Bulls	San Diego FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.80

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.70 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.81
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:15 +9’	2.55	3.80	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:21 +62’	2.70	3.81	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Red Bulls 0–0–1 San Diego FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/25 World Club Friendlies	San Diego FC	6-0	New York Red Bulls

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15	5	6	59	26	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Red Bulls	San Diego FC
Los Angeles FC	0-2 L	1-0 W
Philadelphia Union	1-3 L	0-5 L
Orlando City SC	3-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: New York Red Bulls (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York Red Bulls

WLLDLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
19/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
13/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
10/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
06/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
30/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
23/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
20/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
16/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
02/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	3-2	5	5	W

San Diego FC

DWLWWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	3-3	1	1	D
21/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
14/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-5	11	4	L
10/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-3	2-3	1	10	L
06/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
30/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
23/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
20/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-3	7	3	L
16/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
02/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Red Bulls vs San Diego FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an San Diego FC win (38%). Probabilities: New York Red Bulls 37%, draw 25%, San Diego FC 38%.

How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls vs San Diego FC?

The model expects 3.07 goals (New York Red Bulls 1.52 · San Diego FC 1.55), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls vs San Diego FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.