Football · USA MLS · 15/10, 01:30

Prediction: FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution

Team pages: FC Cincinnati · New England Revolution

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.8Total

FC Cincinnati2.11

New England Revolution1.69

1X2

47% 23% 30%

FC Cincinnati Draw New England Revolution

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cincinnati 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWDLLDDL

New England Revolution 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLWWWL

Head-to-head

FC Cincinnati 3–1–2 New England Revolution (6 last)

New England Revolution6-1FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati1-1New England Revolution
New England Revolution0-1FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati1-0New England Revolution
FC Cincinnati1-2New England Revolution
New England Revolution1-2FC Cincinnati

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cincinnati 1473 · New England Revolution 1532

	FC Cincinnati	Draw	New England Revolution
Our model	47%	22%	31%
Market	46%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.8 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New England Revolution (rating 1473 vs 1532).
H2H favours FC Cincinnati: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cincinnati	New England Revolution
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.4	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6	3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.90

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:05 +5’	2.00	3.90	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cincinnati 3–1–2 New England Revolution

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 USA MLS	New England Revolution	6-1 HT 3-1	FC Cincinnati
23/01/26 America Friendlies	FC Cincinnati	1-1	New England Revolution
15/06/25 USA MLS	New England Revolution	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Cincinnati
06/04/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	1-0 HT 0-0	New England Revolution
23/06/24 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	1-2 HT 0-2	New England Revolution
17/03/24 USA MLS	New England Revolution	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Cincinnati

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	18	6	3	55	21	60
2	New England Revolution	27	14	4	9	45	36	46
3	Inter Miami CF	27	12	10	5	64	50	46
4	Chicago Fire	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Charlotte FC	27	12	7	8	47	38	43
6	Philadelphia Union	27	11	6	10	54	44	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	10	4	13	48	64	34
8	New York Red Bulls	27	9	6	12	34	51	33
9	New York City FC	27	8	9	10	41	36	33
10	FC Cincinnati	26	8	9	9	55	64	33
11	DC United	26	6	12	8	34	42	30
12	Columbus Crew	27	8	5	14	39	43	29
13	Toronto FC	27	6	11	10	39	51	29
14	Atlanta United	27	7	6	14	32	45	27
15	CF Montreal	27	6	6	15	34	54	24

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cincinnati	New England Revolution
Houston Dynamo	2-2 D	0-2 L
New York City FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Orlando City SC	1-1 D	4-2 W
Columbus Crew	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: New England Revolution (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cincinnati

LWDWDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
20/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	2-2	7	0	D
13/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	12	3	D
10/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-2	0-5	1	3	L
30/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
23/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
20/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
16/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
02/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	4-2	9	3	W
26/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	3	L

New England Revolution

LLWDWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	0-3	11	4	L
20/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	4-2	10	4	W
13/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
10/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
30/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
20/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
16/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
08/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-2	9	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Cincinnati win (47%). Probabilities: FC Cincinnati 47%, draw 23%, New England Revolution 30%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?

The model expects 3.8 goals (FC Cincinnati 2.11 · New England Revolution 1.69), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.