Football · USA MLS · 15/10, 01:30

Prediction: DC United vs New York Red Bulls

Team pages: DC United · New York Red Bulls

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

DC United1.87

New York Red Bulls1.18

1X2

53% 24% 23%

DC United Draw New York Red Bulls

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

DC United 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLLDWDLD

New York Red Bulls 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDLWWL

Head-to-head

DC United 1–3–2 New York Red Bulls (6 last)

New York Red Bulls4-4DC United
DC United0-2New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls1-2DC United
DC United1-1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls2-2DC United
DC United1-4New York Red Bulls

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DC United 1454 · New York Red Bulls 1474

	DC United	Draw	New York Red Bulls
Our model	53%	25%	23%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours New York Red Bulls: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DC United	New York Red Bulls
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.8	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:05 +5’	1.75	3.90	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · DC United 1–3–2 New York Red Bulls

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	4-4 HT 2-1	DC United
25/05/25 USA MLS	DC United	0-2 HT 0-1	New York Red Bulls
20/04/25 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	1-2 HT 0-2	DC United
25/01/25 World Club Friendlies	DC United	1-1	New York Red Bulls
30/06/24 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	2-2 HT 1-2	DC United
16/05/24 USA MLS	DC United	1-4 HT 0-1	New York Red Bulls

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	18	6	3	55	21	60
2	New England Revolution	27	14	4	9	45	36	46
3	Inter Miami CF	27	12	10	5	64	50	46
4	Chicago Fire	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Charlotte FC	27	12	7	8	47	38	43
6	Philadelphia Union	27	11	6	10	54	44	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	10	4	13	48	64	34
8	New York Red Bulls	27	9	6	12	34	51	33
9	New York City FC	27	8	9	10	41	36	33
10	FC Cincinnati	26	8	9	9	55	64	33
11	DC United	26	6	12	8	34	42	30
12	Columbus Crew	27	8	5	14	39	43	29
13	Toronto FC	27	6	11	10	39	51	29
14	Atlanta United	27	7	6	14	32	45	27
15	CF Montreal	27	6	6	15	34	54	24

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DC United	New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United	0-0 D	1-2 L
Columbus Crew	2-1 W	1-0 W
Los Angeles FC	0-0 D	0-2 L
Nashville SC	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: DC United (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

DC United

WDDLLDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-2	3-3	10	1	D
20/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
13/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
10/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
23/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-3	9	5	L
20/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
16/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	8	5	D
26/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	8	2	W

New York Red Bulls

WLLDLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
19/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
13/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
10/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
06/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
30/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
23/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
20/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
16/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-2	7	4	L
02/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	3-2	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DC United vs New York Red Bulls?

According to our model, the most likely result is a DC United win (53%). Probabilities: DC United 53%, draw 24%, New York Red Bulls 23%.

How many goals are expected in DC United vs New York Red Bulls?

The model expects 3.05 goals (DC United 1.87 · New York Red Bulls 1.18), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in DC United vs New York Red Bulls?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.