Football · USA MLS · 15/10, 01:30

Prediction: Inter Miami CF vs New York City FC

Team pages: Inter Miami CF · New York City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

Inter Miami CF2.51

New York City FC1.23

1X2

64% 19% 16%

Inter Miami CF Draw New York City FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Inter Miami CF 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWDDDDL

New York City FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDDDLWLD

Head-to-head

Inter Miami CF 3–3–0 New York City FC (6 last)

New York City FC2-3Inter Miami CF
Inter Miami CF5-1New York City FC
New York City FC0-4Inter Miami CF
Inter Miami CF2-2New York City FC
New York City FC1-1Inter Miami CF
Inter Miami CF1-1New York City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Inter Miami CF 1528 · New York City FC 1455

	Inter Miami CF	Draw	New York City FC
Our model	64%	19%	16%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Inter Miami CF (rating 1528 vs 1455).
H2H favours Inter Miami CF: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Inter Miami CF	New York City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.75

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
04:05 +4’	1.45	4.75	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Inter Miami CF 3–3–0 New York City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-3 HT 1-1	Inter Miami CF
30/11/25 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	5-1 HT 2-1	New York City FC
25/09/25 USA MLS	New York City FC	0-4 HT 0-1	Inter Miami CF
23/02/25 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	2-2 HT 1-1	New York City FC
21/09/24 USA MLS	New York City FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Inter Miami CF
31/03/24 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	1-1 HT 1-1	New York City FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	18	6	3	55	21	60
2	New England Revolution	27	14	4	9	45	36	46
3	Inter Miami CF	27	12	10	5	64	50	46
4	Chicago Fire	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Charlotte FC	27	12	7	8	47	38	43
6	Philadelphia Union	27	11	6	10	54	44	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	10	4	13	48	64	34
8	New York Red Bulls	27	9	6	12	34	51	33
9	New York City FC	27	8	9	10	41	36	33
10	FC Cincinnati	26	8	9	9	55	64	33
11	DC United	26	6	12	8	34	42	30
12	Columbus Crew	27	8	5	14	39	43	29
13	Toronto FC	27	6	11	10	39	51	29
14	Atlanta United	27	7	6	14	32	45	27
15	CF Montreal	27	6	6	15	34	54	24

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Inter Miami CF	New York City FC
Nashville SC	2-2 D	0-0 D
Atlanta United	2-2 D	2-2 D
Toronto FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Philadelphia Union	2-2 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Inter Miami CF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-1	1-2	1	11	L
21/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
13/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
10/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-1	2-2	6	9	D
30/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	7-1	6	3	W
23/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
20/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-1	2-2	1	8	D
16/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
02/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	2-2	5	3	D

New York City FC

DLLDDDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
19/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
13/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
10/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	12	2	L
05/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
30/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
20/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
17/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	2-3	8	7	L
01/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Inter Miami CF vs New York City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Inter Miami CF win (64%). Probabilities: Inter Miami CF 64%, draw 19%, New York City FC 16%.

How many goals are expected in Inter Miami CF vs New York City FC?

The model expects 3.74 goals (Inter Miami CF 2.51 · New York City FC 1.23), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Inter Miami CF vs New York City FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.