Football · USA MLS · 15/10, 01:30

Prediction: CF Montreal vs Atlanta United

Team pages: CF Montreal · Atlanta United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

CF Montreal1.61

Atlanta United1.29

1X2

44% 26% 30%

CF Montreal Draw Atlanta United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CF Montreal 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDWDLLLLLW

Atlanta United 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDLDWD

Head-to-head

CF Montreal 2–2–2 Atlanta United (6 last)

Atlanta United3-1CF Montreal
CF Montreal1-1Atlanta United
Atlanta United3-2CF Montreal
CF Montreal2-2Atlanta United
Atlanta United1-2CF Montreal
CF Montreal1-0Atlanta United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CF Montreal 1464 · Atlanta United 1508

	CF Montreal	Draw	Atlanta United
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atlanta United (rating 1464 vs 1508).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CF Montreal	Atlanta United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.8	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.70

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:05 +4’	2.10	3.70	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CF Montreal 2–2–2 Atlanta United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 USA MLS	Atlanta United	3-1 HT 2-1	CF Montreal
10/08/25 USA MLS	CF Montreal	1-1 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
23/02/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	3-2 HT 1-0	CF Montreal
23/10/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	CF Montreal	2-2 HT 0-2	Atlanta United
03/10/24 USA MLS	Atlanta United	1-2 HT 1-1	CF Montreal
14/07/24 USA MLS	CF Montreal	1-0 HT 0-0	Atlanta United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	18	6	3	55	21	60
2	New England Revolution	27	14	4	9	45	36	46
3	Inter Miami CF	27	12	10	5	64	50	46
4	Chicago Fire	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Charlotte FC	27	12	7	8	47	38	43
6	Philadelphia Union	27	11	6	10	54	44	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	10	4	13	48	64	34
8	New York Red Bulls	27	9	6	12	34	51	33
9	New York City FC	27	8	9	10	41	36	33
10	FC Cincinnati	26	8	9	9	55	64	33
11	DC United	26	6	12	8	34	42	30
12	Columbus Crew	27	8	5	14	39	43	29
13	Toronto FC	27	6	11	10	39	51	29
14	Atlanta United	27	7	6	14	32	45	27
15	CF Montreal	27	6	6	15	34	54	24

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CF Montreal	Atlanta United
Charlotte FC	1-2 L	0-2 L
Philadelphia Union	0-2 L	2-3 L
Inter Miami CF	1-7 L	2-2 D
DC United	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atlanta United (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CF Montreal

DDWDLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
20/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
13/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
10/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
06/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-0	0-2	1	8	L
30/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	1-7	6	3	L
23/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
20/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
16/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
02/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	2-2	6	1	D

Atlanta United

LWWWLDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
20/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
13/09	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
10/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
06/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	6	9	D
30/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	11	2	L
24/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
16/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
02/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	2-3	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CF Montreal vs Atlanta United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CF Montreal win (44%). Probabilities: CF Montreal 44%, draw 26%, Atlanta United 30%.

How many goals are expected in CF Montreal vs Atlanta United?

The model expects 2.9 goals (CF Montreal 1.61 · Atlanta United 1.29), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CF Montreal vs Atlanta United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.