Football · USA MLS · 15/10, 01:30

Prediction: Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC

Team pages: Toronto FC · Orlando City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Toronto FC1.92

Orlando City SC1.82

1X2

40% 24% 36%

Toronto FC Draw Orlando City SC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Toronto FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWDDWLLL

Orlando City SC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWWWLL

Head-to-head

Toronto FC 2–4 Orlando City SC (6 last)

Orlando City SC3-0Toronto FC
Toronto FC4-2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC4-2Toronto FC
Toronto FC1-2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC1-2Toronto FC
Toronto FC0-2Orlando City SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toronto FC 1501 · Orlando City SC 1490

	Toronto FC	Draw	Orlando City SC
Our model	40%	23%	37%
Market	40%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Orlando City SC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toronto FC	Orlando City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2	2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.90

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:05 +4’	2.35	3.90	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC 2–0–4 Orlando City SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	3-0 HT 1-0	Toronto FC
19/10/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	4-2 HT 2-0	Orlando City SC
02/03/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	4-2 HT 2-0	Toronto FC
04/07/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-2 HT 1-2	Orlando City SC
28/04/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-2 HT 1-0	Toronto FC
22/10/23 USA MLS	Toronto FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Orlando City SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	18	6	3	55	21	60
2	New England Revolution	27	14	4	9	45	36	46
3	Inter Miami CF	27	12	10	5	64	50	46
4	Chicago Fire	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Charlotte FC	27	12	7	8	47	38	43
6	Philadelphia Union	27	11	6	10	54	44	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	10	4	13	48	64	34
8	New York Red Bulls	27	9	6	12	34	51	33
9	New York City FC	27	8	9	10	41	36	33
10	FC Cincinnati	26	8	9	9	55	64	33
11	DC United	26	6	12	8	34	42	30
12	Columbus Crew	27	8	5	14	39	43	29
13	Toronto FC	27	6	11	10	39	51	29
14	Atlanta United	27	7	6	14	32	45	27
15	CF Montreal	27	6	6	15	34	54	24

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toronto FC	Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire	4-4 D	1-2 L
New England Revolution	2-1 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Toronto FC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toronto FC

DWDWDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	1	L
20/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
13/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
10/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
06/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	4	D
30/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
23/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	6	2	D
16/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	3	W
01/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	6	D

Orlando City SC

LDLWDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-2	2-4	7	6	L
20/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	2-4	3	4	L
13/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
10/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-1	3-2	5	3	W
06/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
30/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	3-3	1	4	D
23/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
20/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
16/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
02/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	2-3	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Toronto FC win (40%). Probabilities: Toronto FC 40%, draw 24%, Orlando City SC 36%.

How many goals are expected in Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Toronto FC 1.92 · Orlando City SC 1.82), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.