Football · USA MLS · 15/10, 02:30

Prediction: Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union

Team pages: Chicago Fire · Philadelphia Union

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Chicago Fire1.77

Philadelphia Union1.88

1X2

36% 24% 40%

Chicago Fire Draw Philadelphia Union

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Chicago Fire 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Philadelphia Union 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chicago Fire 2–1–3 Philadelphia Union (6 last)

Philadelphia Union1-2Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire0-3Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union2-2Chicago Fire
Philadelphia Union4-0Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire0-1Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire4-3Philadelphia Union

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chicago Fire 1543 · Philadelphia Union 1594

	Chicago Fire	Draw	Philadelphia Union
Our model	36%	23%	41%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Philadelphia Union (rating 1543 vs 1594).
H2H favours Philadelphia Union: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chicago Fire	Philadelphia Union
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	3.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4	3.5 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.90

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:34 +5’	2.60	3.90	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire 2–1–3 Philadelphia Union

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-2 HT 1-1	Chicago Fire
01/11/25 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-3 HT 0-3	Philadelphia Union
26/10/25 USA MLS Play-Offs	Philadelphia Union	2-2 HT 0-0	Chicago Fire
24/08/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	4-0 HT 1-0	Chicago Fire
26/06/25 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-1 HT 0-1	Philadelphia Union
04/07/24 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	4-3 HT 1-3	Philadelphia Union

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	18	6	3	55	21	60
2	New England Revolution	27	14	4	9	45	36	46
3	Inter Miami CF	27	12	10	5	64	50	46
4	Chicago Fire	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Charlotte FC	27	12	7	8	47	38	43
6	Philadelphia Union	27	11	6	10	54	44	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	10	4	13	48	64	34
8	New York Red Bulls	27	9	6	12	34	51	33
9	New York City FC	27	8	9	10	41	36	33
10	FC Cincinnati	26	8	9	9	55	64	33
11	DC United	26	6	12	8	34	42	30
12	Columbus Crew	27	8	5	14	39	43	29
13	Toronto FC	27	6	11	10	39	51	29
14	Atlanta United	27	7	6	14	32	45	27
15	CF Montreal	27	6	6	15	34	54	24

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chicago Fire	Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami CF	1-1 D	2-2 D
New York Red Bulls	1-1 D	3-1 W
Orlando City SC	2-1 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Philadelphia Union (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chicago Fire

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
27/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
20/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
13/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	13	4	L
10/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-2	4-4	3	4	D
29/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-2	7	1	D
23/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
17/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	4	W

Philadelphia Union

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	7	6	W
20/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-3	4-3	4	7	W
14/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	5-0	4	4	W
10/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-0	5-0	7	3	W
06/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	8	W
30/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
23/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	4	8	D
17/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-2	3-2	4	7	W
02/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	3-2	12	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Philadelphia Union win (40%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire 36%, draw 24%, Philadelphia Union 40%.

How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Chicago Fire 1.77 · Philadelphia Union 1.88), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.