Football · USA MLS · 15/10, 02:30

Prediction: FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders

Team pages: FC Dallas · Seattle Sounders

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

FC Dallas2.02

Seattle Sounders1.16

1X2

56% 23% 21%

FC Dallas Draw Seattle Sounders

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Dallas 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLDWWWDW

Seattle Sounders 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LLDDDDDWWW

Head-to-head

FC Dallas 0–1–5 Seattle Sounders (6 last)

Seattle Sounders2-1FC Dallas
Seattle Sounders1-0FC Dallas
FC Dallas0-1Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders3-2FC Dallas
FC Dallas0-0Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders1-0FC Dallas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Dallas 1561 · Seattle Sounders 1501

	FC Dallas	Draw	Seattle Sounders
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Dallas (rating 1561 vs 1501).
H2H favours Seattle Sounders: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Dallas	Seattle Sounders
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	2.8 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:35 +3’	1.65	4.00	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Dallas 0–1–5 Seattle Sounders

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	2-1 HT 2-1	FC Dallas
24/05/25 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Dallas
13/04/25 USA MLS	FC Dallas	0-1 HT 0-1	Seattle Sounders
23/06/24 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	3-2 HT 0-0	FC Dallas
14/04/24 USA MLS	FC Dallas	0-0 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders
11/11/23 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Dallas

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15	5	7	60	29	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Dallas	Seattle Sounders
Austin FC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Minnesota United	2-1 W	3-1 W
Sporting Kansas City	4-3 W	2-1 W
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-5 L	0-2 L
Real Salt Lake	4-3 W	2-0 W
LA Galaxy	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Seattle Sounders (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Dallas

DWWLDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
20/09	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
13/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
10/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
06/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	3-2	4-3	3	1	W
31/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	3	3	D
23/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-4	0-5	3	6	L
20/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	3-1	4-3	3	6	W
17/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
02/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Seattle Sounders

LLDDDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
27/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
24/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
20/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	3-3	6	1	D
13/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
06/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
29/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	1	D
23/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
20/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
17/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-2	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Dallas win (56%). Probabilities: FC Dallas 56%, draw 23%, Seattle Sounders 21%.

How many goals are expected in FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders?

The model expects 3.18 goals (FC Dallas 2.02 · Seattle Sounders 1.16), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.