Football · USA MLS · 15/10, 02:30

Prediction: Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City

Team pages: Nashville SC · Sporting Kansas City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.86Total

Nashville SC2.82

Sporting Kansas City1.04

1X2

74% 16% 10%

Nashville SC Draw Sporting Kansas City

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Nashville SC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDLDWW

Sporting Kansas City 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWLWL

Head-to-head

Nashville SC 3–2 Sporting Kansas City (5 last)

Nashville SC2-1Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City0-3Nashville SC
Nashville SC1-2Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City1-2Nashville SC
Sporting Kansas City2-1Nashville SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nashville SC 1568 · Sporting Kansas City 1444

	Nashville SC	Draw	Sporting Kansas City
Our model	74%	16%	11%
Market	73%	16%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nashville SC (rating 1568 vs 1444).
H2H favours Nashville SC: 3-0-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nashville SC	Sporting Kansas City
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.5	2.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.75

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:35 +3’	1.27	5.75	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nashville SC 3–0–2 Sporting Kansas City

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/24 America Friendlies	Nashville SC	2-1	Sporting Kansas City
21/09/23 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	0-3 HT 0-1	Nashville SC
20/06/22 USA MLS	Nashville SC	1-2 HT 0-1	Sporting Kansas City
10/04/22 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	1-2 HT 1-0	Nashville SC
12/10/20 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	2-1 HT 0-1	Nashville SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15	5	7	60	29	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nashville SC

DWWWWDLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-0	2-0	9	1	W
20/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
13/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
10/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	8	1	L
05/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
30/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	4-0	6	5	W
23/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	3-2	8	2	W
20/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
16/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	4-1	10	4	W
02/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	5	D

Sporting Kansas City

LLDLLLWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
27/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
20/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	3-0	3-4	3	7	L
13/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
06/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-3	3-4	7	1	L
30/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
24/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
20/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
16/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
02/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nashville SC win (74%). Probabilities: Nashville SC 74%, draw 16%, Sporting Kansas City 10%.

How many goals are expected in Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model expects 3.86 goals (Nashville SC 2.82 · Sporting Kansas City 1.04), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.