Football · USA MLS · 17/10, 20:30

Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC

Team pages: Philadelphia Union · Charlotte FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Philadelphia Union2.28

Charlotte FC1.23

1X2

60% 21% 19%

Philadelphia Union Draw Charlotte FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Philadelphia Union 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWWWWW

Charlotte FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWDWLW

Head-to-head

Philadelphia Union 2–1–3 Charlotte FC (6 last)

Charlotte FC2-1Philadelphia Union
Charlotte FC2-0Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union2-1Charlotte FC
Philadelphia Union1-0Charlotte FC
Philadelphia Union0-2Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC0-0Philadelphia Union

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union 1594 · Charlotte FC 1572

	Philadelphia Union	Draw	Charlotte FC
Our model	60%	21%	19%
Market	60%	21%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Charlotte FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Philadelphia Union	Charlotte FC
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.2	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.3	3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.40

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.40 → 4.40	Bet365 4.40
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:36 +3’	1.55	4.40	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union 2–1–3 Charlotte FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Philadelphia Union
19/10/25 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Philadelphia Union
15/06/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	2-1 HT 1-0	Charlotte FC
28/07/24 Leagues Cup	Philadelphia Union	1-0 HT 1-0	Charlotte FC
23/06/24 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	0-2 HT 0-0	Charlotte FC
26/05/24 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	28	19	6	3	59	22	63
2	Inter Miami CF	28	13	10	5	68	50	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	14	6	8	51	40	48
4	New England Revolution	28	14	4	10	45	39	46
5	Charlotte FC	28	13	7	8	50	40	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	12	6	10	56	45	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	11	4	13	51	66	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	10	6	12	38	52	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	9	9	9	58	65	36
10	New York City FC	28	8	9	11	42	38	33
11	Toronto FC	28	7	11	10	41	52	32
12	DC United	27	6	12	9	34	46	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	8	5	15	41	46	29
14	Atlanta United	28	7	6	15	33	48	27
15	CF Montreal	28	6	6	16	35	56	24

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Philadelphia Union	Charlotte FC
FC Cincinnati	5-0 W	3-3 D
CF Montreal	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Philadelphia Union (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Philadelphia Union

WDDWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
27/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	7	6	W
20/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-3	4-3	4	7	W
14/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	5-0	4	4	W
10/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-0	5-0	7	3	W
06/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	8	W
30/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
23/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	4	8	D
17/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-2	3-2	4	7	W

Charlotte FC

WDWWDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	3-2	14	2	W
27/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
20/09	DC United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
13/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	3-3	3	3	D
10/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
06/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
30/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
23/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
20/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-3	5	2	D
16/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union win (60%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union 60%, draw 21%, Charlotte FC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Philadelphia Union 2.28 · Charlotte FC 1.23), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.