Football · USA MLS · 17/10, 22:30

Prediction: Minnesota United vs St. Louis City SC

Team pages: Minnesota United · St. Louis City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.9Total

Minnesota United1.97

St. Louis City SC1.93

1X2

39% 24% 37%

Minnesota United Draw St. Louis City SC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Minnesota United 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLWDLLLLLD

St. Louis City SC 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWDWWW

Head-to-head

Minnesota United 5–1 St. Louis City SC (6 last)

St. Louis City SC4-2Minnesota United
St. Louis City SC1-2Minnesota United
Minnesota United3-2St. Louis City SC
Minnesota United3-0St. Louis City SC
Minnesota United4-1St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC1-3Minnesota United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Minnesota United 1432 · St. Louis City SC 1602

	Minnesota United	Draw	St. Louis City SC
Our model	39%	23%	38%
Market	38%	25%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1432 vs 1602).
H2H favours Minnesota United: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Minnesota United	St. Louis City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.6	2.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.70

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 1.3 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:35 +5’	2.45	3.70	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Minnesota United 5–0–1 St. Louis City SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	4-2 HT 3-1	Minnesota United
27/07/25 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	1-2 HT 1-0	Minnesota United
22/05/25 USA US Open Cup	Minnesota United	3-2 HT 1-0	St. Louis City SC
18/05/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	3-0 HT 1-0	St. Louis City SC
20/10/24 USA MLS	Minnesota United	4-1 HT 1-0	St. Louis City SC
15/09/24 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	1-3 HT 1-1	Minnesota United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	61	30	51
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	52	45	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	50	40	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	36	34	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	44	31	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	38	35	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	39	39	37
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	51	54	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	41	46	32
12	San Diego FC	28	8	8	12	48	51	32
13	Austin FC	28	7	10	11	36	51	31
14	Minnesota United	28	7	9	12	42	51	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	35	68	22

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Minnesota United	St. Louis City SC
Houston Dynamo	2-2 D	2-1 W
FC Dallas	1-2 L	3-3 D
Portland Timbers	4-5 L	2-2 D
San Jose Earthquakes	5-1 W	3-1 W
Real Salt Lake	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Minnesota United

DLWDLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	2-2	2	2	D
27/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
20/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-1	2-3	5	2	L
13/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-3	2-4	5	3	L
10/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
06/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-3	4-5	3	4	L
30/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	3-3	8	4	D
23/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	3-1	5-1	3	1	W
20/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
16/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	10	4	D

St. Louis City SC

DWDWDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
20/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
13/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	3-1	4-2	6	3	W
10/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
06/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-1	3-1	2	7	W
31/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
23/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
20/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
02/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Minnesota United vs St. Louis City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Minnesota United win (39%). Probabilities: Minnesota United 39%, draw 24%, St. Louis City SC 37%.

How many goals are expected in Minnesota United vs St. Louis City SC?

The model expects 3.9 goals (Minnesota United 1.97 · St. Louis City SC 1.93), with a 60% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Minnesota United vs St. Louis City SC?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.