Football · USA MLS · 18/10, 01:30

Prediction: New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire

Team pages: New England Revolution · Chicago Fire

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

New England Revolution1.75

Chicago Fire1.73

1X2

38% 24% 37%

New England Revolution Draw Chicago Fire

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

New England Revolution 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWWWLL

Chicago Fire 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDDLLWWW

Head-to-head

New England Revolution 2–2–2 Chicago Fire (6 last)

Chicago Fire1-2New England Revolution
New England Revolution2-2Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire3-2New England Revolution
New England Revolution1-3Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire0-1New England Revolution
New England Revolution1-1Chicago Fire

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New England Revolution 1520 · Chicago Fire 1546

	New England Revolution	Draw	Chicago Fire
Our model	38%	24%	38%
Market	38%	25%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New England Revolution	Chicago Fire
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.1	1.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.80

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:31 +10’	2.45	3.80	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New England Revolution 2–2–2 Chicago Fire

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-2 HT 0-1	New England Revolution
19/10/25 USA MLS	New England Revolution	2-2 HT 1-0	Chicago Fire
07/09/25 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	3-2 HT 2-0	New England Revolution
21/05/25 USA US Open Cup	New England Revolution	1-3 HT 0-1	Chicago Fire
05/05/24 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-1 HT 0-0	New England Revolution
23/03/24 USA MLS	New England Revolution	1-1 HT 1-1	Chicago Fire

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	28	19	6	3	59	22	63
2	Inter Miami CF	28	13	10	5	68	50	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	14	6	8	51	40	48
4	New England Revolution	28	14	4	10	45	39	46
5	Charlotte FC	28	13	7	8	50	40	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	12	6	10	56	45	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	11	4	13	51	66	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	10	6	12	38	52	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	9	9	9	58	65	36
10	New York City FC	28	8	9	11	42	38	33
11	Toronto FC	28	7	11	10	41	52	32
12	DC United	27	6	12	9	34	46	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	8	5	15	41	46	29
14	Atlanta United	28	7	6	15	33	48	27
15	CF Montreal	28	6	6	16	35	56	24

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New England Revolution	Chicago Fire
Seattle Sounders	0-3 L	2-2 D
Orlando City SC	4-2 W	2-1 W
New York City FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Toronto FC	1-2 L	4-4 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Chicago Fire (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New England Revolution

LWDWLWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
27/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	0-3	11	4	L
20/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	4-2	10	4	W
13/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
10/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
30/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
20/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
16/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-2	1-2	9	3	L

Chicago Fire

WDDDDLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
07/10	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
27/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
20/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
13/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	13	4	L
10/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-2	4-4	3	4	D
29/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-2	7	1	D
23/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New England Revolution win (38%). Probabilities: New England Revolution 38%, draw 24%, Chicago Fire 37%.

How many goals are expected in New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?

The model expects 3.48 goals (New England Revolution 1.75 · Chicago Fire 1.73), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.