Football · USA MLS · 18/10, 01:30

Prediction: New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC

Team pages: New York Red Bulls · Toronto FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

New York Red Bulls1.8

Toronto FC1.44

1X2

45% 25% 30%

New York Red Bulls Draw Toronto FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

New York Red Bulls 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLWWLW

Toronto FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDDWLLLW

Head-to-head

New York Red Bulls 3–3–0 Toronto FC (6 last)

Toronto FC1-1New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC1-1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls2-1Toronto FC
Toronto FC1-4New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls0-0Toronto FC
New York Red Bulls3-0Toronto FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Red Bulls 1481 · Toronto FC 1516

	New York Red Bulls	Draw	Toronto FC
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours New York Red Bulls: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Red Bulls	Toronto FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	1.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.80

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:38 +2’	2.05	3.80	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Red Bulls 3–3–0 Toronto FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-1 HT 1-0	New York Red Bulls
26/06/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-1 HT 0-1	New York Red Bulls
23/03/25 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	2-1 HT 1-0	Toronto FC
03/10/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-4 HT 0-1	New York Red Bulls
28/07/24 Leagues Cup	New York Red Bulls	0-0 HT 0-0	Toronto FC
23/06/24 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	3-0 HT 1-0	Toronto FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	28	19	6	3	59	22	63
2	Inter Miami CF	28	13	10	5	68	50	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	14	6	8	51	40	48
4	New England Revolution	28	14	4	10	45	39	46
5	Charlotte FC	28	13	7	8	50	40	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	12	6	10	56	45	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	11	4	13	51	66	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	10	6	12	38	52	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	9	9	9	58	65	36
10	New York City FC	28	8	9	11	42	38	33
11	Toronto FC	28	7	11	10	41	52	32
12	DC United	27	6	12	9	34	46	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	8	5	15	41	46	29
14	Atlanta United	28	7	6	15	33	48	27
15	CF Montreal	28	6	6	16	35	56	24

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Red Bulls	Toronto FC
St. Louis City SC	0-3 L	1-3 L
New York City FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Chicago Fire	1-1 D	4-4 D
Nashville SC	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: New York Red Bulls (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York Red Bulls

LLDLDLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	San Diego FC USA MLS	3-0	4-1	4	5	W
01/10	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
19/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
13/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
10/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
06/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
30/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
23/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
20/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
16/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-2	7	4	L

Toronto FC

WDWDDWLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
27/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	1	L
20/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
13/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
10/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
06/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	4	D
30/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
23/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	6	2	D
16/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New York Red Bulls win (45%). Probabilities: New York Red Bulls 45%, draw 25%, Toronto FC 30%.

How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?

The model expects 3.24 goals (New York Red Bulls 1.8 · Toronto FC 1.44), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.