Football · USA MLS · 18/10, 01:30

Prediction: Orlando City SC vs DC United

Team pages: Orlando City SC · DC United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Orlando City SC2.32

DC United1.47

1X2

55% 22% 23%

Orlando City SC Draw DC United

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Orlando City SC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDWWWLLW

DC United 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLDWDLDL

Head-to-head

Orlando City SC 3–1–2 DC United (6 last)

DC United3-2Orlando City SC
DC United1-1Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC4-1DC United
Orlando City SC5-0DC United
DC United2-3Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC1-3DC United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orlando City SC 1498 · DC United 1454

	Orlando City SC	Draw	DC United
Our model	56%	21%	23%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Orlando City SC (rating 1498 vs 1454).
H2H favours Orlando City SC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orlando City SC	DC United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.9	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.10

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:39 +1’	1.70	4.10	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orlando City SC 3–1–2 DC United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 USA MLS	DC United	3-2 HT 1-0	Orlando City SC
14/09/25 USA MLS	DC United	1-1 HT 1-0	Orlando City SC
23/03/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	4-1 HT 2-0	DC United
07/07/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	5-0 HT 3-0	DC United
14/04/24 USA MLS	DC United	2-3 HT 1-1	Orlando City SC
23/04/23 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-3 HT 1-1	DC United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	28	19	6	3	59	22	63
2	Inter Miami CF	28	13	10	5	68	50	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	14	6	8	51	40	48
4	New England Revolution	28	14	4	10	45	39	46
5	Charlotte FC	28	13	7	8	50	40	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	12	6	10	56	45	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	11	4	13	51	66	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	10	6	12	38	52	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	9	9	9	58	65	36
10	New York City FC	28	8	9	11	42	38	33
11	Toronto FC	28	7	11	10	41	52	32
12	DC United	27	6	12	9	34	46	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	8	5	15	41	46	29
14	Atlanta United	28	7	6	15	33	48	27
15	CF Montreal	28	6	6	16	35	56	24

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orlando City SC	DC United
Columbus Crew	3-2 W	2-1 W
New England Revolution	2-4 L	0-3 L
Atlanta United	3-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Orlando City SC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orlando City SC

DLWDWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
27/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-2	2-4	7	6	L
20/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	2-4	3	4	L
13/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
10/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-1	3-2	5	3	W
06/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
30/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	3-3	1	4	D
23/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
20/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
16/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D

DC United

DDLLDWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
27/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-2	3-3	10	1	D
20/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
13/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
10/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
23/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-3	9	5	L
20/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
16/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orlando City SC vs DC United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orlando City SC win (55%). Probabilities: Orlando City SC 55%, draw 22%, DC United 23%.

How many goals are expected in Orlando City SC vs DC United?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Orlando City SC 2.32 · DC United 1.47), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs DC United?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.