Football · USA MLS · 18/10, 02:30

Prediction: Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas

Team pages: Houston Dynamo · FC Dallas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Houston Dynamo1.62

FC Dallas1.28

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Houston Dynamo Draw FC Dallas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Houston Dynamo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Dallas 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Houston Dynamo 2–2–2 FC Dallas (6 last)

FC Dallas4-3Houston Dynamo
FC Dallas1-2Houston Dynamo
FC Dallas0-2Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo1-2FC Dallas
FC Dallas2-2Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo1-1FC Dallas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Houston Dynamo 1496 · FC Dallas 1544

	Houston Dynamo	Draw	FC Dallas
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	44%	27%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Dallas (rating 1496 vs 1544).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Houston Dynamo	FC Dallas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	1.7 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +4’	2.10	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dynamo 2–2–2 FC Dallas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 USA MLS	FC Dallas	4-3 HT 2-3	Houston Dynamo
11/02/26 America Friendlies	FC Dallas	1-2	Houston Dynamo
18/05/25 USA MLS	FC Dallas	0-2 HT 0-0	Houston Dynamo
23/02/25 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Dallas
07/02/25 World Club Friendlies	FC Dallas	2-2	Houston Dynamo
19/05/24 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Dallas

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	61	30	51
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	52	45	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	50	40	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	36	34	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	44	31	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	38	35	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	39	39	37
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	51	54	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	41	46	32
12	San Diego FC	28	8	8	12	48	51	32
13	Austin FC	28	7	10	11	36	51	31
14	Minnesota United	28	7	9	12	42	51	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	35	68	22

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Houston Dynamo	FC Dallas
Minnesota United	2-2 D	2-1 W
Sporting Kansas City	0-2 L	4-3 W
Real Salt Lake	2-1 W	4-3 W
Charlotte FC	0-0 D	2-3 L
St. Louis City SC	1-2 L	3-3 D
Vancouver Whitecaps	1-0 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Dallas (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Houston Dynamo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-2	5	2	D
27/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
20/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	0	D
13/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
10/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-1	1	5	W
06/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
30/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
23/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
20/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
16/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	1-0	4	5	W

FC Dallas

WWLDWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-0	2-3	3	2	L
27/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
20/09	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
13/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
10/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
06/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	3-2	4-3	3	1	W
31/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	3	3	D
23/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-4	0-5	3	6	L
20/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	3-1	4-3	3	6	W
17/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Houston Dynamo win (44%). Probabilities: Houston Dynamo 44%, draw 27%, FC Dallas 29%.

How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Houston Dynamo 1.62 · FC Dallas 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.