Basketball · France Ligue A · 03/10, 20:30

Prediction: Bourg vs Chalon

Team pages: Bourg · Chalon

Prediction summary

Estimated points

176.5Total

Bourg89.7

Chalon86.8

1X2

58% 42%

Bourg Chalon

Recent form · 10 last

Bourg 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWLLL

Chalon 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Bourg 5–1 Chalon (6 last)

Chalon100-84Bourg
Bourg82-80Chalon
Bourg103-77Chalon
Chalon86-93Bourg
Chalon62-89Bourg
Bourg90-67Chalon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bourg 1438 · Chalon 1531

	Bourg	Chalon
Our model	50%	50%
Market	60%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 176.5 points · Bet365 line 169.5 · +7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points176.5Bourg 89.7 · Chalon 86.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chalon (rating 1438 vs 1531).
H2H favours Bourg: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Bourg	Chalon
Points F\|A (Last 10)	87.4 / 90.2	90.6 / 85
Points F\|A (Last 5)	93.4 / 90	87.6 / 79.8
Est. result	90	87

Est. total176.5

Line O/U169.5

Diff.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.55

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.83

2 (+3.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 169.51.83

Under 169.51.83

Diff.: 7.1 · Est. total: 176.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	2
14:50 +6’	1.55	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bourg 5–0–1 Chalon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 France Ligue A	Chalon	100-84	Bourg
20/12/25 France Ligue A	Bourg	82-80	Chalon
02/02/25 France Ligue A	Bourg	103-77	Chalon
16/11/24 France Ligue A	Chalon	86-93	Bourg
20/01/24 France Ligue A	Chalon	62-89	Bourg
18/11/23 France Ligue A	Bourg	90-67	Chalon

Standings · France Ligue A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Nanterre	1	1	0	78	64
2	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	1	1	0	97	85
3	Dijon	1	1	0	81	72
4	Chalon	1	1	0	82	74
5	Le Mans	1	1	0	103	97
6	Paris	1	1	0	78	73
7	Saint-Quentin	1	1	0	106	103
8	Roanne	1	1	0	81	79
9	Boulazac	1	0	1	79	81
10	Bourg	1	0	1	103	106
11	Nancy	1	0	1	73	78
12	Gravelines	1	0	1	97	103
13	Limoges	1	0	1	74	82
14	Strasbourg	1	0	1	72	81
15	Cholet	1	0	1	85	97
16	Pau-Orthez	1	0	1	64	78

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bourg	Chalon
Strasbourg	91-71 W	81-102 L
Gravelines	95-78 W	86-81 W
Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	77-91 L	87-89 L
Limoges	92-71 W	82-74 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bourg (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bourg

WLLLLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	Saint-Quentin France Ligue A	103-106	L
27/05	Monaco France Ligue A	103-114	L
25/05	Monaco France Ligue A	75-81	L
20/05	Strasbourg France Ligue A	91-71	W
16/05	Gravelines France Ligue A	95-78	W
09/05	Dijon France Ligue A	83-101	L
05/05	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne France Ligue A	77-91	L
03/05	Saint-Quentin France Ligue A	71-89	L
18/04	Chalon France Ligue A	84-100	L
15/04	Limoges France Ligue A	92-71	W

Chalon

WLLWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	Limoges France Ligue A	82-74	W
23/05	Strasbourg France Ligue A	81-102	L
20/05	Nancy France Ligue A	91-75	W
16/05	Strasbourg France Ligue A	91-90	W
09/05	Le Portel France Ligue A	93-58	W
02/05	Paris France Ligue A	105-103	W
18/04	Bourg France Ligue A	100-84	W
11/04	Boulazac France Ligue A	90-94	L
05/04	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne France Ligue A	87-89	L
27/03	Gravelines France Ligue A	86-81	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bourg vs Chalon?

Our model gives 58% to Bourg.

How many points are expected in Bourg vs Chalon?

The model estimates 176.5 total points (Bourg 89.7 · Chalon 86.8).