Basketball · France Ligue A · 11/10, 16:30

Prediction: Paris vs Strasbourg

Team pages: Paris · Strasbourg

Prediction summary

Estimated points

175.5Total

Paris95

Strasbourg80.5

1X2

85% 15%

Paris Strasbourg

Recent form · 10 last

Paris 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLLWW

Strasbourg 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Paris 5–1 Strasbourg (6 last)

Paris89-75Strasbourg
Strasbourg87-82Paris
Paris95-64Strasbourg
Strasbourg86-92Paris
Paris96-67Strasbourg
Strasbourg79-87Paris

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paris 1591 · Strasbourg 1431

	Paris	Strasbourg
Our model	81%	19%
Market	86%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 175.5 points · Bet365 line 172.5 · +3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points175.5Paris 95 · Strasbourg 80.5

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paris (rating 1591 vs 1431).
Paris is a clear favourite (85% market).
H2H favours Paris: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Paris	Strasbourg
Points F\|A (Last 10)	91.9 / 89.5	84.3 / 89.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	89 / 89.6	77 / 84.4
Est. result	95	81

Est. total175.5

Line O/U172.5

Diff.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.10

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-12.5)1.83

2 (+12.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 172.51.83

Under 172.51.83

Diff.: 4.95 · Est. total: 177.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.10 → 1.10	Bet365 1.10
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3%

Time*	1	2
19:09 +4’	1.10	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paris 5–0–1 Strasbourg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 France Ligue A	Paris	89-75	Strasbourg
28/05/26 France Ligue A	Strasbourg	87-82	Paris
26/05/26 France Ligue A	Paris	95-64	Strasbourg
11/04/26 France Ligue A	Strasbourg	86-92	Paris
13/01/26 France Ligue A	Paris	96-67	Strasbourg
21/03/25 France Ligue A	Strasbourg	79-87	Paris

Standings · France Ligue A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Dijon	2	2	0	170	133
2	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	2	2	0	167	150
3	Roanne	2	2	0	174	162
4	Paris	2	2	0	181	174
5	Bourg	2	1	1	193	183
6	Limoges	2	1	1	166	157
7	Chalon	2	1	1	159	164
8	Saint-Quentin	2	1	1	181	195
9	Le Mans	2	1	1	204	200
10	Nanterre	2	1	1	161	157
11	Strasbourg	2	1	1	159	156
12	Cholet	2	1	1	170	173
13	Gravelines	2	0	2	162	173
14	Boulazac	2	0	2	154	168
15	Nancy	2	0	2	149	163
16	Pau-Orthez	2	0	2	125	167

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paris

WWWWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/10	Le Mans France Ligue A	103-101	W
27/09	Nancy France Ligue A	78-73	W
23/06	Monaco France Ligue A	92-101	L
21/06	Monaco France Ligue A	84-96	L
19/06	Monaco France Ligue A	88-77	W
17/06	Monaco France Ligue A	90-102	L
14/06	Monaco France Ligue A	95-91	W
09/06	Cholet France Ligue A	94-91	W
07/06	Cholet France Ligue A	95-86	W
04/06	Cholet France Ligue A	100-77	W

Strasbourg

LLLLWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	Boulazac France Ligue A	87-75	W
25/09	Dijon France Ligue A	72-81	L
30/05	Paris France Ligue A	75-89	L
28/05	Paris France Ligue A	87-82	W
26/05	Paris France Ligue A	64-95	L
23/05	Chalon France Ligue A	102-81	W
20/05	Bourg France Ligue A	71-91	L
16/05	Chalon France Ligue A	90-91	L
09/05	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne France Ligue A	81-89	L
03/05	Monaco France Ligue A	114-118	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paris vs Strasbourg?

Our model gives 85% to Paris.

How many points are expected in Paris vs Strasbourg?

The model estimates 175.5 total points (Paris 95 · Strasbourg 80.5).