Basketball · France Ligue A · 04/10, 16:30

Prediction: Gravelines vs Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

Team pages: Gravelines · Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

Prediction summary

Estimated points

166.9Total

Gravelines80.9

Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne86

1X2

36% 64%

Gravelines Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

Markets

Under 173.5 points 80%

Recent form · 10 last

Gravelines 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLLLL

Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Gravelines 0–6 Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne (6 last)

Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne88-79Gravelines
Gravelines62-83Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne90-83Gravelines
Gravelines60-81Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne86-83Gravelines
Gravelines74-79Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gravelines 1414 · Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne 1535

	Gravelines	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Our model	46%	54%
Market	34%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 166.9 points · Bet365 line 173.5 · -6.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points166.9Gravelines 80.9 · Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne 86

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne (rating 1414 vs 1535).
H2H favours Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Gravelines	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Points F\|A (Last 10)	85.4 / 92.2	82.9 / 78.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	83.4 / 93.4	77.6 / 79.2
Est. result	81	86

Est. total166.9

Line O/U173.5

Diff.6.6

Over / Under20% / 80%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.72

21.41

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+5.5)1.83

2 (-5.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 173.51.83

Under 173.51.83

Diff.: 3.95 · Est. total: 169.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.72 → 2.72	Bet365 2.72
2	1.41 → 1.41	Bet365 1.41

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	2
14:46 +13’	2.72	1.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gravelines 0–0–6 Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 France Ligue A	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	88-79	Gravelines
08/11/25 France Ligue A	Gravelines	62-83	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
19/01/25 France Ligue A	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	90-83	Gravelines
17/11/24 France Ligue A	Gravelines	60-81	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
24/03/24 France Ligue A	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	86-83	Gravelines
23/09/23 France Ligue A	Gravelines	74-79	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

Standings · France Ligue A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Nanterre	1	1	0	78	64
2	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	1	1	0	97	85
3	Dijon	1	1	0	81	72
4	Chalon	1	1	0	82	74
5	Le Mans	1	1	0	103	97
6	Paris	1	1	0	78	73
7	Saint-Quentin	1	1	0	106	103
8	Roanne	1	1	0	81	79
9	Boulazac	1	0	1	79	81
10	Bourg	1	0	1	103	106
11	Nancy	1	0	1	73	78
12	Gravelines	1	0	1	97	103
13	Limoges	1	0	1	74	82
14	Strasbourg	1	0	1	72	81
15	Cholet	1	0	1	85	97
16	Pau-Orthez	1	0	1	64	78

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gravelines	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Bourg	78-95 L	91-77 W
Monaco	77-89 L	87-83 W
Paris	115-109 W	76-87 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gravelines

WLLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	Le Mans France Ligue A	97-103	L
16/05	Bourg France Ligue A	78-95	L
09/05	Nanterre France Ligue A	80-85	L
01/05	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne France Ligue A	79-88	L
18/04	Le Mans France Ligue A	83-96	L
11/04	Limoges France Ligue A	64-93	L
05/04	Le Portel France Ligue A	100-78	W
27/03	Chalon France Ligue A	81-86	L
21/03	Monaco France Ligue A	77-89	L
15/03	Paris France Ligue A	115-109	W

Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

WWWWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	Cholet France Ligue A	97-85	W
30/05	Cholet France Ligue A	75-80	L
28/05	Cholet France Ligue A	65-77	L
26/05	Cholet France Ligue A	75-67	W
16/05	Paris France Ligue A	76-87	L
09/05	Strasbourg France Ligue A	89-81	W
05/05	Bourg France Ligue A	91-77	W
01/05	Gravelines France Ligue A	88-79	W
19/04	Monaco France Ligue A	87-83	W
12/04	Saint-Quentin France Ligue A	86-70	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gravelines vs Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne?

Our model gives 64% to Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne.

How many points are expected in Gravelines vs Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne?

The model estimates 166.9 total points (Gravelines 80.9 · Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne 86).