Basketball · France Ligue A · 04/10, 19:00

Prediction: Le Mans vs Paris

Team pages: Le Mans · Paris

Prediction summary

Estimated points

178.6Total

Le Mans88.6

Paris90

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

46% 54%

Le Mans Paris

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Le Mans 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWLLW

Paris 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Le Mans 3–3 Paris (6 last)

Paris110-92Le Mans
Le Mans95-89Paris
Le Mans90-87Paris
Paris91-80Le Mans
Paris106-103Le Mans
Le Mans84-76Paris

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Le Mans 1550 · Paris 1592

	Le Mans	Paris
Our model	57%	43%
Market	44%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 178.6 points · Bet365 line 172.5 · +6.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points178.6Le Mans 88.6 · Paris 90

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Le Mans	Paris
Points F\|A (Last 10)	88.7 / 84.2	90.5 / 88.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	84.2 / 84	86.4 / 89.8
Est. result	89	90

Est. total178.6

Line O/U172.5

Diff.6.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.12

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.83

2 (-2.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 172.51.83

Under 172.51.83

Diff.: 3.4 · Est. total: 175.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.12 → 2.12	Bet365 2.12
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	2
14:50 +10’	2.12	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Le Mans 3–0–3 Paris

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 France Ligue A	Paris	110-92	Le Mans
06/10/25 France Ligue A	Le Mans	95-89	Paris
20/09/25 France Super Cup	Le Mans	90-87	Paris
26/04/25 Coupe De France	Paris	91-80	Le Mans
06/04/25 France Ligue A	Paris	106-103	Le Mans
15/12/24 France Ligue A	Le Mans	84-76	Paris

Standings · France Ligue A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Nanterre	1	1	0	78	64
2	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	1	1	0	97	85
3	Dijon	1	1	0	81	72
4	Chalon	1	1	0	82	74
5	Le Mans	1	1	0	103	97
6	Paris	1	1	0	78	73
7	Saint-Quentin	1	1	0	106	103
8	Roanne	1	1	0	81	79
9	Boulazac	1	0	1	79	81
10	Bourg	1	0	1	103	106
11	Nancy	1	0	1	73	78
12	Gravelines	1	0	1	97	103
13	Limoges	1	0	1	74	82
14	Strasbourg	1	0	1	72	81
15	Cholet	1	0	1	85	97
16	Pau-Orthez	1	0	1	64	78

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Le Mans	Paris
Nancy	102-74 W	78-73 W
Cholet	89-94 L	94-91 W
Monaco	85-99 L	92-101 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Paris (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Le Mans

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	Gravelines France Ligue A	103-97	W
27/05	Nanterre France Ligue A	55-64	L
25/05	Nanterre France Ligue A	74-90	L
16/05	Limoges France Ligue A	101-84	W
09/05	Saint-Quentin France Ligue A	88-85	W
30/04	Nancy France Ligue A	102-74	W
18/04	Gravelines France Ligue A	96-83	W
11/04	Le Portel France Ligue A	94-72	W
04/04	Cholet France Ligue A	89-94	L
29/03	Monaco France Ligue A	85-99	L

Paris

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	Nancy France Ligue A	78-73	W
23/06	Monaco France Ligue A	92-101	L
21/06	Monaco France Ligue A	84-96	L
19/06	Monaco France Ligue A	88-77	W
17/06	Monaco France Ligue A	90-102	L
14/06	Monaco France Ligue A	95-91	W
09/06	Cholet France Ligue A	94-91	W
07/06	Cholet France Ligue A	95-86	W
04/06	Cholet France Ligue A	100-77	W
02/06	Cholet France Ligue A	89-90	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Le Mans vs Paris?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Le Mans 46% · Paris 54%).

How many points are expected in Le Mans vs Paris?

The model estimates 178.6 total points (Le Mans 88.6 · Paris 90).