Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 10/10, 21:00

Prediction: Breogan vs Girona

Team pages: Breogan · Girona

Prediction summary

Estimated points

183Total

Breogan94.6

Girona88.4

1X2

67% 33%

Breogan Girona

Recent form · 10 last

Breogan 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLLWW

Girona 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Breogan 3–3 Girona (6 last)

Breogan95-76Girona
Girona103-80Breogan
Girona91-85Breogan
Breogan77-74Girona
Breogan93-75Girona
Girona87-83Breogan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Breogan 1562 · Girona 1457

	Breogan	Girona
Our model	75%	25%
Market	65%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 183 points · Bet365 line 184.5 · -1.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points183Breogan 94.6 · Girona 88.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Breogan (rating 1562 vs 1457).
Breogan is a clear favourite (67% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Breogan	Girona
Points F\|A (Last 10)	97.4 / 94.7	81 / 88.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	96.6 / 94.2	80 / 90.6
Est. result	95	88

Est. total183

Line O/U184.5

Diff.1.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.45

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.83

2 (+4.5)1.91

Line ⓘ

Over 184.51.87

Under 184.51.87

Diff.: 3.8 · Est. total: 180.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.8%

Time*	1	2
18:09 +3’	1.45	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Breogan 3–0–3 Girona

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Spain Liga ACB	Breogan	95-76	Girona
06/12/25 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	103-80	Breogan
12/04/25 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	91-85	Breogan
21/12/24 Spain Liga ACB	Breogan	77-74	Girona
21/01/24 Spain Liga ACB	Breogan	93-75	Girona
18/11/23 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	87-83	Breogan

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Baskonia	2	2	0	216	175
2	Breogan	2	2	0	211	199
3	Real Madrid	2	2	0	203	194
4	Barcelona	2	1	1	213	201
5	Bilbao	2	1	1	208	196
6	San Pablo Burgos	2	1	1	191	179
7	Valencia	2	1	1	197	187
8	Tenerife	2	1	1	160	156
9	UCAM Murcia	2	1	1	177	178
10	Monbus Obradoiro	2	1	1	197	199
11	Forca Lleida	2	1	1	186	194
12	Zaragoza	2	1	1	163	177
13	Coruna	2	1	1	205	220
14	Girona	2	1	1	162	195
15	BC Andorra	1	0	1	85	90
16	Joventut	1	0	1	104	110
17	Unicaja Malaga	2	0	2	162	169
18	Manresa	2	0	2	187	208

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Breogan	Girona
Manresa	101-95 W	74-79 L
Joventut	110-104 W	82-77 W
Zaragoza	94-95 L	90-81 W
Baskonia	84-112 L	78-118 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Breogan (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Breogan

WWLWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	101-95	W
27/09	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	110-104	W
29/05	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	94-95	L
23/05	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	83-101	L
16/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	95-76	W
13/05	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	114-87	W
10/05	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	101-97	W
03/05	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	84-112	L
26/04	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	93-86	W
19/04	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	99-94	W

Girona

LLWLLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/10	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	78-118	L
27/09	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	84-77	W
29/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	82-77	W
24/05	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	80-86	L
16/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	76-95	L
12/05	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	74-79	L
09/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	75-86	L
02/05	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	90-81	W
25/04	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	90-100	L
19/04	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	81-84	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Breogan vs Girona?

Our model gives 67% to Breogan.

How many points are expected in Breogan vs Girona?

The model estimates 183 total points (Breogan 94.6 · Girona 88.4).