Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 18/10, 17:00
Prediction: Valencia vs UCAM Murcia
Team pages: Valencia · UCAM Murcia
Prediction summary
Estimated points
179.8Total
Valencia94.8
UCAM Murcia85
1X2
Valencia
UCAM Murcia
Recent form · 10 last
Valencia
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
UCAM Murcia
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Valencia
2–4
UCAM Murcia
(6 last)
- Valencia110-84UCAM Murcia
- UCAM Murcia92-80Valencia
- UCAM Murcia92-85Valencia
- Valencia71-86UCAM Murcia
- UCAM Murcia88-96Valencia
- Valencia77-84UCAM Murcia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valencia 1609 · UCAM Murcia 1516
| Valencia | UCAM Murcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 26% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
179.8 points · Bet365 line 182.5 · -2.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points179.8Valencia 94.8 · UCAM Murcia 85
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valencia (rating 1609 vs 1516).
- Valencia is a clear favourite (76% market).
- H2H favours UCAM Murcia: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Valencia | UCAM Murcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 98.8 / 89.6 | 87.1 / 88.7 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 95.8 / 88 | 84 / 91 |
| Est. result | 95 | 85 |
Est. total179.8
Line O/U182.5
Diff.2.7
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valencia 2–0–4 UCAM Murcia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Spain Liga ACB | Valencia | 110-84 | UCAM Murcia |
| 21/12/25 Spain Liga ACB | UCAM Murcia | 92-80 | Valencia |
| 07/09/25 Club Friendlies | UCAM Murcia | 92-85 | Valencia |
| 05/04/25 Spain Liga ACB | Valencia | 71-86 | UCAM Murcia |
| 15/12/24 Spain Liga ACB | UCAM Murcia | 88-96 | Valencia |
| 25/05/24 Spain Liga ACB | Valencia | 77-84 | UCAM Murcia |
Standings · Spain Liga ACB
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baskonia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 309 | 248 | 0 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 323 | 277 | 0 |
| 3 | Breogan | 3 | 3 | 0 | 326 | 291 | 0 |
| 4 | Bilbao | 3 | 2 | 1 | 304 | 283 | 0 |
| 5 | Tenerife | 3 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 233 | 0 |
| 6 | Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 1 | 302 | 287 | 0 |
| 7 | Zaragoza | 3 | 2 | 1 | 255 | 248 | 0 |
| 8 | Monbus Obradoiro | 3 | 2 | 1 | 288 | 288 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 283 | 276 | 0 |
| 10 | San Pablo Burgos | 3 | 1 | 2 | 278 | 275 | 0 |
| 11 | Unicaja Malaga | 3 | 1 | 2 | 254 | 253 | 0 |
| 12 | Forca Lleida | 3 | 1 | 2 | 275 | 285 | 0 |
| 13 | UCAM Murcia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 254 | 268 | 0 |
| 14 | Coruna | 3 | 1 | 2 | 276 | 312 | 0 |
| 15 | Girona | 3 | 1 | 2 | 254 | 310 | 0 |
| 16 | BC Andorra | 2 | 0 | 2 | 169 | 182 | 0 |
| 17 | Joventut | 2 | 0 | 2 | 177 | 203 | 0 |
| 18 | Manresa | 3 | 0 | 3 | 270 | 328 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Valencia | UCAM Murcia |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 86-89 L | 100-94 W |
| Zaragoza | 97-82 W | 100-90 W |
| Forca Lleida | 100-105 L | 116-95 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: UCAM Murcia (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valencia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Barcelona Spain Liga ACB |
86-89 | L |
| 04/10 | Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB |
97-82 | W |
| 27/09 | Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB |
100-105 | L |
| 24/06 | Barcelona Spain Liga ACB |
108-84 | W |
| 22/06 | Barcelona Spain Liga ACB |
88-80 | W |
| 20/06 | Barcelona Spain Liga ACB |
102-75 | W |
| 18/06 | Barcelona Spain Liga ACB |
112-113 | L |
| 14/06 | Joventut Spain Liga ACB |
87-75 | W |
| 12/06 | Joventut Spain Liga ACB |
90-76 | W |
| 10/06 | Joventut Spain Liga ACB |
118-117 | W |
UCAM Murcia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Tenerife Spain Liga ACB |
77-90 | L |
| 04/10 | Barcelona Spain Liga ACB |
100-94 | W |
| 27/09 | Girona Spain Liga ACB |
77-84 | L |
| 06/06 | Barcelona Spain Liga ACB |
76-100 | L |
| 04/06 | Barcelona Spain Liga ACB |
90-87 | W |
| 02/06 | Barcelona Spain Liga ACB |
68-91 | L |
| 29/05 | Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB |
116-95 | W |
| 24/05 | Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB |
100-90 | W |
| 17/05 | Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB |
87-69 | W |
| 14/05 | Baskonia Spain Liga ACB |
80-87 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valencia vs UCAM Murcia?
Our model gives 76% to Valencia.
How many points are expected in Valencia vs UCAM Murcia?
The model estimates 179.8 total points (Valencia 94.8 · UCAM Murcia 85).