Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 18/10, 12:30
Prediction: Real Madrid vs Bilbao
Team pages: Real Madrid · Bilbao
Prediction summary
Estimated points
178.4Total
Real Madrid94.6
Bilbao83.8
1X2
Real Madrid
Bilbao
Recent form · 10 last
Real Madrid
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Bilbao
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Madrid
4–2
Bilbao
(6 last)
- Bilbao88-82Real Madrid
- Real Madrid82-70Bilbao
- Real Madrid88-70Bilbao
- Bilbao83-79Real Madrid
- Real Madrid95-80Bilbao
- Bilbao84-87Real Madrid
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Madrid 1532 · Bilbao 1533
| Real Madrid | Bilbao | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 82% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
178.4 points · Bet365 line 182.5 · -4.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points178.4Real Madrid 94.6 · Bilbao 83.8
Match keys
- Real Madrid is a clear favourite (78% market).
- H2H favours Real Madrid: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Real Madrid | Bilbao | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 96.6 / 92.4 | 88 / 87.6 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 107.2 / 93.4 | 91 / 90.8 |
| Est. result | 95 | 84 |
Est. total178.4
Line O/U182.5
Diff.4.1
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 4–0–2 Bilbao
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/26 Spain Liga ACB | Bilbao | 88-82 | Real Madrid |
| 16/11/25 Spain Liga ACB | Real Madrid | 82-70 | Bilbao |
| 30/03/25 Spain Liga ACB | Real Madrid | 88-70 | Bilbao |
| 13/10/24 Spain Liga ACB | Bilbao | 83-79 | Real Madrid |
| 21/01/24 Spain Liga ACB | Real Madrid | 95-80 | Bilbao |
| 12/11/23 Spain Liga ACB | Bilbao | 84-87 | Real Madrid |
Standings · Spain Liga ACB
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baskonia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 309 | 248 | 0 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 323 | 277 | 0 |
| 3 | Breogan | 3 | 3 | 0 | 326 | 291 | 0 |
| 4 | Bilbao | 3 | 2 | 1 | 304 | 283 | 0 |
| 5 | Tenerife | 3 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 233 | 0 |
| 6 | Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 1 | 302 | 287 | 0 |
| 7 | Zaragoza | 3 | 2 | 1 | 255 | 248 | 0 |
| 8 | Monbus Obradoiro | 3 | 2 | 1 | 288 | 288 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 283 | 276 | 0 |
| 10 | San Pablo Burgos | 3 | 1 | 2 | 278 | 275 | 0 |
| 11 | Unicaja Malaga | 3 | 1 | 2 | 254 | 253 | 0 |
| 12 | Forca Lleida | 3 | 1 | 2 | 275 | 285 | 0 |
| 13 | UCAM Murcia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 254 | 268 | 0 |
| 14 | Coruna | 3 | 1 | 2 | 276 | 312 | 0 |
| 15 | Girona | 3 | 1 | 2 | 254 | 310 | 0 |
| 16 | BC Andorra | 2 | 0 | 2 | 169 | 182 | 0 |
| 17 | Joventut | 2 | 0 | 2 | 177 | 203 | 0 |
| 18 | Manresa | 3 | 0 | 3 | 270 | 328 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| Manresa | 120-83 W | 107-92 W |
| Tenerife | 95-107 L | 87-82 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Madrid
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Manresa Spain Liga ACB |
120-83 | W |
| 04/10 | Monbus Obradoiro Spain Liga ACB |
114-107 | W |
| 27/09 | Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB |
89-87 | W |
| 06/06 | Tenerife Spain Liga ACB |
95-107 | L |
| 04/06 | Tenerife Spain Liga ACB |
118-83 | W |
| 02/06 | Tenerife Spain Liga ACB |
97-98 | L |
| 29/05 | Manresa Spain Liga ACB |
87-94 | L |
| 27/05 | Baskonia Spain Liga ACB |
83-88 | L |
| 17/05 | Joventut Spain Liga ACB |
81-89 | L |
| 14/05 | Bilbao Spain Liga ACB |
82-88 | L |
Bilbao
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB |
96-87 | W |
| 04/10 | Coruna Spain Liga ACB |
101-104 | L |
| 26/09 | Manresa Spain Liga ACB |
107-92 | W |
| 05/06 | Valencia Spain Liga ACB |
71-88 | L |
| 03/06 | Valencia Spain Liga ACB |
80-83 | L |
| 29/05 | Tenerife Spain Liga ACB |
87-82 | W |
| 24/05 | Girona Spain Liga ACB |
86-80 | W |
| 17/05 | Valencia Spain Liga ACB |
83-88 | L |
| 14/05 | Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB |
88-82 | W |
| 10/05 | Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB |
81-90 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs Bilbao?
Our model gives 78% to Real Madrid.
How many points are expected in Real Madrid vs Bilbao?
The model estimates 178.4 total points (Real Madrid 94.6 · Bilbao 83.8).