Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 18/10, 12:00

Prediction: Zaragoza vs Forca Lleida

Team pages: Zaragoza · Forca Lleida

Prediction summary

Estimated points

179.8Total

Zaragoza93

Forca Lleida86.8

1X2

67% 33%

Zaragoza Forca Lleida

Recent form · 10 last

Zaragoza 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWWLW

Forca Lleida 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLWLL

Head-to-head

Zaragoza 3–1 Forca Lleida (4 last)

Zaragoza107-91Forca Lleida
Forca Lleida77-87Zaragoza
Forca Lleida97-91Zaragoza
Zaragoza101-91Forca Lleida

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaragoza 1504 · Forca Lleida 1489

	Zaragoza	Forca Lleida
Our model	65%	35%
Market	68%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 179.8 points · Bet365 line 181.5 · -1.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points179.8Zaragoza 93 · Forca Lleida 86.8

Match keys

Zaragoza is a clear favourite (67% market).
H2H favours Zaragoza: 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Zaragoza	Forca Lleida
Points F\|A (Last 10)	84.2 / 89	87.3 / 97.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	87.2 / 88	91.6 / 103.4
Est. result	93	87

Est. total179.8

Line O/U181.5

Diff.1.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.38

22.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-5.5)1.83

2 (+5.5)1.91

Line ⓘ

Over 181.51.87

Under 181.51.87

Diff.: 2.55 · Est. total: 178.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
2	2.95 → 2.95	Bet365 2.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.2%

Time*	1	2
22:32 +18’	1.38	2.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaragoza 3–0–1 Forca Lleida

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Spain Liga ACB	Zaragoza	107-91	Forca Lleida
04/01/26 Spain Liga ACB	Forca Lleida	77-87	Zaragoza
09/03/25 Spain Liga ACB	Forca Lleida	97-91	Zaragoza
29/09/24 Spain Liga ACB	Zaragoza	101-91	Forca Lleida

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Baskonia	3	3	0	309	248
2	Real Madrid	3	3	0	323	277
3	Breogan	3	3	0	326	291
4	Bilbao	3	2	1	304	283
5	Tenerife	3	2	1	250	233
6	Barcelona	3	2	1	302	287
7	Zaragoza	3	2	1	255	248
8	Monbus Obradoiro	3	2	1	288	288
9	Valencia	3	1	2	283	276
10	San Pablo Burgos	3	1	2	278	275
11	Unicaja Malaga	3	1	2	254	253
12	Forca Lleida	3	1	2	275	285
13	UCAM Murcia	3	1	2	254	268
14	Coruna	3	1	2	276	312
15	Girona	3	1	2	254	310
16	BC Andorra	2	0	2	169	182
17	Joventut	2	0	2	177	203
18	Manresa	3	0	3	270	328

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaragoza	Forca Lleida
Valencia	82-97 L	105-100 W
Breogan	95-94 W	87-114 L
UCAM Murcia	90-100 L	95-116 L
Gran Canaria	78-74 W	75-72 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Zaragoza (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaragoza

WLLLLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	Coruna Spain Liga ACB	92-71	W
04/10	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	82-97	L
27/09	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	81-80	W
29/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	95-94	W
26/05	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	86-98	L
24/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	90-100	L
16/05	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	83-101	L
09/05	Granada Spain Liga ACB	74-85	L
02/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	81-90	L
18/04	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	78-74	W

Forca Lleida

LLWLWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/10	Monbus Obradoiro Spain Liga ACB	89-91	L
04/10	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	81-94	L
27/09	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	105-100	W
29/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	95-116	L
24/05	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	88-116	L
17/05	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	75-72	W
13/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	87-114	L
10/05	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	90-81	W
02/05	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	91-99	L
25/04	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	72-91	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaragoza vs Forca Lleida?

Our model gives 67% to Zaragoza.

How many points are expected in Zaragoza vs Forca Lleida?

The model estimates 179.8 total points (Zaragoza 93 · Forca Lleida 86.8).