Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 04/10, 18:00

Prediction: Baskonia vs Girona

Team pages: Baskonia · Girona

Prediction summary

Estimated points

177.7Total

Baskonia94.7

Girona83

1X2

80% 20%

Baskonia Girona

Recent form · 10 last

Baskonia 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLLW

Girona 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLWW

Head-to-head

Baskonia 4–2 Girona (6 last)

Baskonia94-81Girona
Girona85-96Baskonia
Baskonia92-76Girona
Girona96-67Baskonia
Baskonia92-96Girona
Girona85-93Baskonia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baskonia 1521 · Girona 1442

	Baskonia	Girona
Our model	73%	27%
Market	82%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 177.7 points · Bet365 line 180.5 · -2.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points177.7Baskonia 94.7 · Girona 83

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Baskonia (rating 1521 vs 1442).
Baskonia is a clear favourite (80% market).
H2H favours Baskonia: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Baskonia	Girona
Points F\|A (Last 10)	92.2 / 85.3	82.6 / 86.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	85.2 / 87	79.2 / 82.8
Est. result	95	83

Est. total177.7

Line O/U180.5

Diff.2.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.15

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-10.5)1.87

2 (+10.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 180.51.87

Under 180.51.87

Diff.: 7.35 · Est. total: 173.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.15 → 1.15	Bet365 1.15
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.8%

Time*	1	2
21:12 +6’	1.15	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baskonia 4–0–2 Girona

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Spain Liga ACB	Baskonia	94-81	Girona
11/01/26 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	85-96	Baskonia
06/04/25 Spain Liga ACB	Baskonia	92-76	Girona
12/01/25 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	96-67	Baskonia
05/05/24 Spain Liga ACB	Baskonia	92-96	Girona
30/12/23 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	85-93	Baskonia

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Barcelona	1	1	0	119	101
2	Bilbao	1	1	0	107	92
3	Girona	1	1	0	84	77
4	Breogan	1	1	0	110	104
5	Forca Lleida	1	1	0	105	100
6	Monbus Obradoiro	1	1	0	90	85
7	Real Madrid	1	1	0	89	87
8	Baskonia	1	1	0	98	97
9	Zaragoza	1	1	0	81	80
10	San Pablo Burgos	1	0	1	97	98
11	Tenerife	1	0	1	80	81
12	Unicaja Malaga	1	0	1	87	89
13	Valencia	1	0	1	100	105
14	BC Andorra	1	0	1	85	90
15	Joventut	1	0	1	104	110
16	UCAM Murcia	1	0	1	77	84
17	Manresa	1	0	1	92	107
18	Coruna	1	0	1	101	119

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baskonia	Girona
Joventut	88-96 L	82-77 W
UCAM Murcia	87-80 W	84-77 W
Valencia	88-86 W	81-84 L
Breogan	112-84 W	76-95 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Baskonia (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baskonia

WWWWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	98-97	W
07/06	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	88-96	L
05/06	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	63-82	L
03/06	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	85-71	W
29/05	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	92-89	W
27/05	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	88-83	W
17/05	Granada Spain Liga ACB	121-85	W
14/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	87-80	W
10/05	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	88-86	W
03/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	112-84	W

Girona

LLLWLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	84-77	W
29/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	82-77	W
24/05	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	80-86	L
16/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	76-95	L
12/05	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	74-79	L
09/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	75-86	L
02/05	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	90-81	W
25/04	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	90-100	L
19/04	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	81-84	L
11/04	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	94-97	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baskonia vs Girona?

Our model gives 80% to Baskonia.

How many points are expected in Baskonia vs Girona?

The model estimates 177.7 total points (Baskonia 94.7 · Girona 83).