Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 11/10, 18:00

Prediction: Bilbao vs San Pablo Burgos

Team pages: Bilbao · San Pablo Burgos

Prediction summary

Estimated points

180.6Total

Bilbao93.4

San Pablo Burgos87.2

1X2

67% 33%

Bilbao San Pablo Burgos

Recent form · 10 last

Bilbao 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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San Pablo Burgos 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bilbao 4–2 San Pablo Burgos (6 last)

San Pablo Burgos72-79Bilbao
San Pablo Burgos96-88Bilbao
Bilbao95-85San Pablo Burgos
San Pablo Burgos104-97Bilbao
Bilbao87-81San Pablo Burgos
Bilbao68-59San Pablo Burgos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bilbao 1527 · San Pablo Burgos 1542

	Bilbao	San Pablo Burgos
Our model	61%	39%
Market	68%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 180.6 points · Bet365 line 179.5 · +1.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points180.6Bilbao 93.4 · San Pablo Burgos 87.2

Match keys

Bilbao is a clear favourite (67% market).
H2H favours Bilbao: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Bilbao	San Pablo Burgos
Points F\|A (Last 10)	87.2 / 87.2	93.2 / 91.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	89.2 / 89.8	93 / 90.6
Est. result	93	87

Est. total180.6

Line O/U179.5

Diff.1.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.38

22.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-5.5)1.83

2 (+5.5)1.91

Line ⓘ

Over 179.51.87

Under 179.51.87

Diff.: 0.2 · Est. total: 179.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
2	2.95 → 2.95	Bet365 2.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.2%

Time*	1	2
18:16 +3’	1.38	2.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bilbao 4–0–2 San Pablo Burgos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/09/26 Club Friendlies	San Pablo Burgos	72-79	Bilbao
07/03/26 Spain Liga ACB	San Pablo Burgos	96-88	Bilbao
12/10/25 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	95-85	San Pablo Burgos
16/02/22 Spain Liga ACB	San Pablo Burgos	104-97	Bilbao
24/10/21 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	87-81	San Pablo Burgos
27/08/21 Club Friendlies	Bilbao	68-59	San Pablo Burgos

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Baskonia	2	2	0	216	175
2	Breogan	2	2	0	211	199
3	Real Madrid	2	2	0	203	194
4	Barcelona	2	1	1	213	201
5	Bilbao	2	1	1	208	196
6	San Pablo Burgos	2	1	1	191	179
7	Valencia	2	1	1	197	187
8	Tenerife	2	1	1	160	156
9	UCAM Murcia	2	1	1	177	178
10	Monbus Obradoiro	2	1	1	197	199
11	Forca Lleida	2	1	1	186	194
12	Zaragoza	2	1	1	163	177
13	Coruna	2	1	1	205	220
14	Girona	2	1	1	162	195
15	BC Andorra	1	0	1	85	90
16	Joventut	1	0	1	104	110
17	Unicaja Malaga	2	0	2	162	169
18	Manresa	2	0	2	187	208

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bilbao	San Pablo Burgos
Manresa	107-92 W	101-94 W
Forca Lleida	81-90 L	94-81 W
Granada	88-83 W	110-105 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bilbao

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/10	Coruna Spain Liga ACB	101-104	L
26/09	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	107-92	W
05/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	71-88	L
03/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	80-83	L
29/05	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	87-82	W
24/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	86-80	W
17/05	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	83-88	L
14/05	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	88-82	W
10/05	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	81-90	L
03/05	Granada Spain Liga ACB	88-83	W

San Pablo Burgos

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/10	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	94-81	W
27/09	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	97-98	L
29/05	Granada Spain Liga ACB	110-105	W
24/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	79-86	L
17/05	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	85-83	W
14/05	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	97-90	W
09/05	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	76-91	L
02/05	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	99-91	W
26/04	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	101-94	W
19/04	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	94-99	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bilbao vs San Pablo Burgos?

Our model gives 67% to Bilbao.

How many points are expected in Bilbao vs San Pablo Burgos?

The model estimates 180.6 total points (Bilbao 93.4 · San Pablo Burgos 87.2).