Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 11/10, 12:00

Prediction: Real Madrid vs Manresa

Team pages: Real Madrid · Manresa

Prediction summary

Estimated points

183.7Total

Real Madrid99.4

Manresa84.3

1X2

86% 14%

Real Madrid Manresa

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madrid 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Manresa 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Real Madrid 4–2 Manresa (6 last)

Manresa94-87Real Madrid
Real Madrid87-75Manresa
Manresa65-67Real Madrid
Real Madrid92-69Manresa
Real Madrid86-61Manresa
Real Madrid72-83Manresa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madrid 1528 · Manresa 1497

	Real Madrid	Manresa
Our model	67%	33%
Market	91%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 183.7 points · Bet365 line 180.5 · +3.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points183.7Real Madrid 99.4 · Manresa 84.3

Match keys

Real Madrid is a clear favourite (86% market).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Real Madrid	Manresa
Points F\|A (Last 10)	94.3 / 94.2	92.4 / 91.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	102.6 / 96.4	93.8 / 91.6
Est. result	99	84

Est. total183.7

Line O/U180.5

Diff.3.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.04

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-15.5)1.87

2 (+15.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 180.51.87

Under 180.51.87

Diff.: 5.9 · Est. total: 186.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.04 → 1.04	Bet365 1.04
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	2
20:00 +11’	1.04	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 4–0–2 Manresa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Spain Liga ACB	Manresa	94-87	Real Madrid
26/10/25 Spain Liga ACB	Real Madrid	87-75	Manresa
18/05/25 Spain Liga ACB	Manresa	65-67	Real Madrid
14/02/25 Spain Copa del Rey	Real Madrid	92-69	Manresa
27/10/24 Spain Liga ACB	Real Madrid	86-61	Manresa
31/03/24 Spain Liga ACB	Real Madrid	72-83	Manresa

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Baskonia	2	2	0	216	175
2	Breogan	2	2	0	211	199
3	Real Madrid	2	2	0	203	194
4	Barcelona	2	1	1	213	201
5	Bilbao	2	1	1	208	196
6	San Pablo Burgos	2	1	1	191	179
7	Valencia	2	1	1	197	187
8	Tenerife	2	1	1	160	156
9	UCAM Murcia	2	1	1	177	178
10	Monbus Obradoiro	2	1	1	197	199
11	Forca Lleida	2	1	1	186	194
12	Zaragoza	2	1	1	163	177
13	Coruna	2	1	1	205	220
14	Girona	2	1	1	162	195
15	BC Andorra	1	0	1	85	90
16	Joventut	1	0	1	104	110
17	Unicaja Malaga	2	0	2	162	169
18	Manresa	2	0	2	187	208

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madrid	Manresa
Bilbao	82-88 L	92-107 L
Breogan	97-101 L	95-101 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Madrid

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/10	Monbus Obradoiro Spain Liga ACB	114-107	W
27/09	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	89-87	W
06/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	95-107	L
04/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	118-83	W
02/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	97-98	L
29/05	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	87-94	L
27/05	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	83-88	L
17/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	81-89	L
14/05	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	82-88	L
10/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	97-101	L

Manresa

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	95-101	L
26/09	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	92-107	L
29/05	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	94-87	W
23/05	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	87-80	W
16/05	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	101-83	W
12/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	79-74	W
10/05	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	94-104	L
03/05	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	104-102	W
26/04	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	94-101	L
18/04	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	84-80	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs Manresa?

Our model gives 86% to Real Madrid.

How many points are expected in Real Madrid vs Manresa?

The model estimates 183.7 total points (Real Madrid 99.4 · Manresa 84.3).