Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 24/10, 21:00
Prediction: Barcelona vs Zaragoza
Team pages: Barcelona · Zaragoza
Prediction summary
Estimated points
183.5Total
Barcelona97.7
Zaragoza85.9
1X2
Barcelona
Zaragoza
Recent form · 10 last
Barcelona
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Zaragoza
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Barcelona
4–2
Zaragoza
(6 last)
- Zaragoza86-92Barcelona
- Barcelona100-80Zaragoza
- Barcelona97-95Zaragoza
- Zaragoza108-95Barcelona
- Barcelona109-68Zaragoza
- Zaragoza101-99Barcelona
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barcelona 1563 · Zaragoza 1480
| Barcelona | Zaragoza | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 27% |
| Market | 82% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
183.5 points · Bet365 line 180.5 · +3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points183.5Barcelona 97.7 · Zaragoza 85.9
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (rating 1563 vs 1480).
- Barcelona is a clear favourite (80% market).
- H2H favours Barcelona: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Barcelona | Zaragoza | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 92.5 / 97.5 | 87.3 / 91.4 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 95 / 101.6 | 91.8 / 88 |
| Est. result | 98 | 86 |
Est. total183.5
Line O/U180.5
Diff.3
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona 4–0–2 Zaragoza
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 Spain Liga ACB | Zaragoza | 86-92 | Barcelona |
| 02/01/26 Spain Liga ACB | Barcelona | 100-80 | Zaragoza |
| 23/03/25 Spain Liga ACB | Barcelona | 97-95 | Zaragoza |
| 15/12/24 Spain Liga ACB | Zaragoza | 108-95 | Barcelona |
| 03/03/24 Spain Liga ACB | Barcelona | 109-68 | Zaragoza |
| 10/12/23 Spain Liga ACB | Zaragoza | 101-99 | Barcelona |
Standings · Spain Liga ACB
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 4 | 4 | 0 | 442 | 361 | 0 |
| 2 | Baskonia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 386 | 330 | 0 |
| 3 | Breogan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 428 | 399 | 0 |
| 4 | Tenerife | 4 | 3 | 1 | 332 | 310 | 0 |
| 5 | Zaragoza | 4 | 3 | 1 | 364 | 346 | 0 |
| 6 | Monbus Obradoiro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 367 | 360 | 0 |
| 7 | Valencia | 4 | 2 | 2 | 399 | 369 | 0 |
| 8 | Joventut | 4 | 2 | 2 | 386 | 367 | 0 |
| 9 | Unicaja Malaga | 4 | 2 | 2 | 338 | 325 | 0 |
| 10 | Barcelona | 4 | 2 | 2 | 391 | 400 | 0 |
| 11 | Bilbao | 4 | 2 | 2 | 388 | 402 | 0 |
| 12 | Girona | 4 | 2 | 2 | 364 | 400 | 0 |
| 13 | San Pablo Burgos | 4 | 1 | 3 | 350 | 354 | 0 |
| 14 | Forca Lleida | 4 | 1 | 3 | 373 | 394 | 0 |
| 15 | BC Andorra | 4 | 1 | 3 | 352 | 380 | 0 |
| 16 | UCAM Murcia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 347 | 384 | 0 |
| 17 | Coruna | 4 | 1 | 3 | 366 | 422 | 0 |
| 18 | Manresa | 4 | 0 | 4 | 342 | 412 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barcelona | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 89-86 W | 82-97 L |
| UCAM Murcia | 94-100 L | 90-100 L |
| Coruna | 119-101 W | 92-71 W |
| Tenerife | 85-76 W | 81-80 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Barcelona (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barcelona
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Joventut Spain Liga ACB |
89-113 | L |
| 11/10 | Valencia Spain Liga ACB |
89-86 | W |
| 04/10 | UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB |
94-100 | L |
| 26/09 | Coruna Spain Liga ACB |
119-101 | W |
| 24/06 | Valencia Spain Liga ACB |
84-108 | L |
| 22/06 | Valencia Spain Liga ACB |
80-88 | L |
| 20/06 | Valencia Spain Liga ACB |
75-102 | L |
| 18/06 | Valencia Spain Liga ACB |
113-112 | W |
| 13/06 | Tenerife Spain Liga ACB |
85-76 | W |
| 11/06 | Tenerife Spain Liga ACB |
97-89 | W |
Zaragoza
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB |
109-98 | W |
| 10/10 | Coruna Spain Liga ACB |
92-71 | W |
| 04/10 | Valencia Spain Liga ACB |
82-97 | L |
| 27/09 | Tenerife Spain Liga ACB |
81-80 | W |
| 29/05 | Breogan Spain Liga ACB |
95-94 | W |
| 26/05 | Valencia Spain Liga ACB |
86-98 | L |
| 24/05 | UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB |
90-100 | L |
| 16/05 | Manresa Spain Liga ACB |
83-101 | L |
| 09/05 | Granada Spain Liga ACB |
74-85 | L |
| 02/05 | Girona Spain Liga ACB |
81-90 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barcelona vs Zaragoza?
Our model gives 80% to Barcelona.
How many points are expected in Barcelona vs Zaragoza?
The model estimates 183.5 total points (Barcelona 97.7 · Zaragoza 85.9).