Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 31/10, 19:30

Prediction: UCAM Murcia vs Forca Lleida

Team pages: UCAM Murcia · Forca Lleida

Prediction summary

Estimated points

184Total

UCAM Murcia97.4

Forca Lleida86.6

1X2

78% 22%

UCAM Murcia Forca Lleida

Recent form · 10 last

UCAM Murcia 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Forca Lleida 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWLLLL

Head-to-head

UCAM Murcia 3–1 Forca Lleida (4 last)

UCAM Murcia116-95Forca Lleida
Forca Lleida71-107UCAM Murcia
Forca Lleida79-77UCAM Murcia
UCAM Murcia88-81Forca Lleida

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UCAM Murcia 1551 · Forca Lleida 1472

	UCAM Murcia	Forca Lleida
Our model	73%	27%
Market	79%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 184 points · Bet365 line 181.5 · +2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points184UCAM Murcia 97.4 · Forca Lleida 86.6

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UCAM Murcia (rating 1551 vs 1472).
UCAM Murcia is a clear favourite (78% market).
H2H favours UCAM Murcia: 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	UCAM Murcia	Forca Lleida
Points F\|A (Last 10)	88.5 / 92.8	89.4 / 101.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	87 / 93	91.8 / 103.2
Est. result	97	87

Est. total184

Line O/U181.5

Diff.2.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-9.5)1.87

2 (+9.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 181.51.87

Under 181.51.87

Diff.: 4.6 · Est. total: 186.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.6%

Time*	1	2
20:56 +17’	1.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UCAM Murcia 3–0–1 Forca Lleida

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	116-95	Forca Lleida
22/11/25 Spain Liga ACB	Forca Lleida	71-107	UCAM Murcia
04/05/25 Spain Liga ACB	Forca Lleida	79-77	UCAM Murcia
12/01/25 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	88-81	Forca Lleida

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Real Madrid	5	5	0	564	447
2	Tenerife	5	4	1	438	386
3	Baskonia	5	3	2	461	414
4	Valencia	5	3	2	483	444
5	Unicaja Malaga	5	3	2	441	415
6	Breogan	5	3	2	518	502
7	Barcelona	5	3	2	490	481
8	Zaragoza	5	3	2	445	445
9	Bilbao	5	3	2	476	478
10	Girona	5	3	2	465	487
11	Monbus Obradoiro	5	3	2	443	466
12	San Pablo Burgos	5	2	3	449	435
13	Joventut	5	2	3	473	468
14	UCAM Murcia	5	2	3	435	465
15	BC Andorra	5	1	4	428	468
16	Forca Lleida	5	1	4	459	516
17	Coruna	5	1	4	447	510
18	Manresa	5	0	5	423	511

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UCAM Murcia	Forca Lleida
Valencia	93-116 L	105-100 W
Zaragoza	100-90 W	98-109 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UCAM Murcia

WWLWLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	Coruna Spain Liga ACB	88-81	W
18/10	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	93-116	L
11/10	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	77-90	L
04/10	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	100-94	W
27/09	Girona Spain Liga ACB	77-84	L
06/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	76-100	L
04/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	90-87	W
02/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	68-91	L
29/05	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	116-95	W
24/05	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	100-90	W

Forca Lleida

WLWLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	86-122	L
18/10	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	98-109	L
11/10	Monbus Obradoiro Spain Liga ACB	89-91	L
04/10	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	81-94	L
27/09	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	105-100	W
29/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	95-116	L
24/05	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	88-116	L
17/05	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	75-72	W
13/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	87-114	L
10/05	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	90-81	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UCAM Murcia vs Forca Lleida?

Our model gives 78% to UCAM Murcia.

How many points are expected in UCAM Murcia vs Forca Lleida?

The model estimates 184 total points (UCAM Murcia 97.4 · Forca Lleida 86.6).