Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 01/11, 12:30

Prediction: Real Madrid vs San Pablo Burgos

Team pages: Real Madrid · San Pablo Burgos

Prediction summary

Estimated points

189.8Total

Real Madrid102.8

San Pablo Burgos87

1X2

87% 13%

Real Madrid San Pablo Burgos

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madrid 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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San Pablo Burgos 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Real Madrid 6–0 San Pablo Burgos (6 last)

San Pablo Burgos78-94Real Madrid
Real Madrid90-80San Pablo Burgos
San Pablo Burgos70-85Real Madrid
Real Madrid70-63San Pablo Burgos
Real Madrid96-81San Pablo Burgos
San Pablo Burgos60-74Real Madrid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madrid 1593 · San Pablo Burgos 1496

	Real Madrid	San Pablo Burgos
Our model	75%	25%
Market	91%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 189.8 points · Bet365 line 185.5 · +4.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points189.8Real Madrid 102.8 · San Pablo Burgos 87

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1593 vs 1496).
Real Madrid is a clear favourite (87% market).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Real Madrid	San Pablo Burgos
Points F\|A (Last 10)	104.4 / 91.7	89.6 / 89
Points F\|A (Last 5)	112.8 / 89.4	89.8 / 87
Est. result	103	87

Est. total189.8

Line O/U185.5

Diff.4.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.04

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-15.5)1.87

2 (+15.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 185.51.87

Under 185.51.87

Diff.: 1.85 · Est. total: 187.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.04 → 1.04	Bet365 1.04
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	2
21:05 +16’	1.04	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 6–0–0 San Pablo Burgos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Spain Liga ACB	San Pablo Burgos	78-94	Real Madrid
19/10/25 Spain Liga ACB	Real Madrid	90-80	San Pablo Burgos
13/03/22 Spain Liga ACB	San Pablo Burgos	70-85	Real Madrid
19/09/21 Spain Liga ACB	Real Madrid	70-63	San Pablo Burgos
27/02/21 Spain Liga ACB	Real Madrid	96-81	San Pablo Burgos
06/12/20 Spain Liga ACB	San Pablo Burgos	60-74	Real Madrid

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Real Madrid	5	5	0	564	447
2	Tenerife	5	4	1	438	386
3	Baskonia	5	3	2	461	414
4	Valencia	5	3	2	483	444
5	Unicaja Malaga	5	3	2	441	415
6	Breogan	5	3	2	518	502
7	Barcelona	5	3	2	490	481
8	Zaragoza	5	3	2	445	445
9	Bilbao	5	3	2	476	478
10	Girona	5	3	2	465	487
11	Monbus Obradoiro	5	3	2	443	466
12	San Pablo Burgos	5	2	3	449	435
13	Joventut	5	2	3	473	468
14	UCAM Murcia	5	2	3	435	465
15	BC Andorra	5	1	4	428	468
16	Forca Lleida	5	1	4	459	516
17	Coruna	5	1	4	447	510
18	Manresa	5	0	5	423	511

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madrid	San Pablo Burgos
Forca Lleida	122-86 W	94-81 W
Bilbao	119-84 W	87-96 L
Manresa	120-83 W	99-81 W
Monbus Obradoiro	114-107 W	72-79 L
Unicaja Malaga	89-87 W	97-90 W
Baskonia	83-88 L	97-98 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Madrid

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	122-86	W
18/10	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	119-84	W
11/10	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	120-83	W
04/10	Monbus Obradoiro Spain Liga ACB	114-107	W
27/09	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	89-87	W
06/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	95-107	L
04/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	118-83	W
02/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	97-98	L
29/05	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	87-94	L
27/05	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	83-88	L

San Pablo Burgos

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	99-81	W
17/10	Monbus Obradoiro Spain Liga ACB	72-79	L
11/10	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	87-96	L
04/10	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	94-81	W
27/09	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	97-98	L
29/05	Granada Spain Liga ACB	110-105	W
24/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	79-86	L
17/05	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	85-83	W
14/05	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	97-90	W
09/05	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	76-91	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs San Pablo Burgos?

Our model gives 87% to Real Madrid.

How many points are expected in Real Madrid vs San Pablo Burgos?

The model estimates 189.8 total points (Real Madrid 102.8 · San Pablo Burgos 87).