Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: Joventut vs Bilbao

Team pages: Joventut · Bilbao

Prediction summary

Estimated points

179Total

Joventut92.8

Bilbao86.2

1X2

68% 32%

Joventut Bilbao

Recent form · 10 last

Joventut 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Bilbao 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Joventut 4–2 Bilbao (6 last)

Bilbao80-76Joventut
Joventut101-69Bilbao
Joventut87-79Bilbao
Bilbao79-95Joventut
Bilbao92-71Joventut
Joventut81-78Bilbao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Joventut 1532 · Bilbao 1533

	Joventut	Bilbao
Our model	63%	37%
Market	70%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 179 points · Bet365 line 178.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points179Joventut 92.8 · Bilbao 86.2

Match keys

Joventut is a clear favourite (68% market).
H2H favours Joventut: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Joventut	Bilbao
Points F\|A (Last 10)	91.9 / 91.4	88.3 / 89.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	94.6 / 93.6	95.2 / 95.6
Est. result	93	86

Est. total179

Line O/U178.5

Diff.0.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.36

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-6.5)1.87

2 (+6.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 178.51.87

Under 178.51.87

Diff.: 2.25 · Est. total: 180.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	2
19:43 +17’	1.36	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Joventut 4–0–2 Bilbao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	80-76	Joventut
19/10/25 Spain Liga ACB	Joventut	101-69	Bilbao
03/05/25 Spain Liga ACB	Joventut	87-79	Bilbao
17/11/24 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	79-95	Joventut
17/03/24 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	92-71	Joventut
19/11/23 Spain Liga ACB	Joventut	81-78	Bilbao

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Real Madrid	5	5	0	564	447
2	Tenerife	5	4	1	438	386
3	Baskonia	5	3	2	461	414
4	Valencia	5	3	2	483	444
5	Unicaja Malaga	5	3	2	441	415
6	Breogan	5	3	2	518	502
7	Barcelona	5	3	2	490	481
8	Zaragoza	5	3	2	445	445
9	Bilbao	5	3	2	476	478
10	Girona	5	3	2	465	487
11	Monbus Obradoiro	5	3	2	443	466
12	San Pablo Burgos	5	2	3	449	435
13	Joventut	5	2	3	473	468
14	UCAM Murcia	5	2	3	435	465
15	BC Andorra	5	1	4	428	468
16	Forca Lleida	5	1	4	459	516
17	Coruna	5	1	4	447	510
18	Manresa	5	0	5	423	511

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Joventut	Bilbao
Girona	87-101 L	86-80 W
BC Andorra	96-75 W	88-76 W
Valencia	75-87 L	71-88 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Joventut (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Joventut

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Girona Spain Liga ACB	87-101	L
18/10	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	113-89	W
14/10	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	96-75	W
11/10	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	73-93	L
27/09	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	104-110	L
14/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	75-87	L
12/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	76-90	L
10/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	117-118	L
07/06	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	96-88	W
05/06	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	82-63	W

Bilbao

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	88-76	W
18/10	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	84-119	L
11/10	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	96-87	W
04/10	Coruna Spain Liga ACB	101-104	L
26/09	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	107-92	W
05/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	71-88	L
03/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	80-83	L
29/05	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	87-82	W
24/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	86-80	W
17/05	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	83-88	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Joventut vs Bilbao?

Our model gives 68% to Joventut.

How many points are expected in Joventut vs Bilbao?

The model estimates 179 total points (Joventut 92.8 · Bilbao 86.2).