Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 25/10, 19:00

Prediction: Forca Lleida vs Real Madrid

Team pages: Forca Lleida · Real Madrid

Prediction summary

Estimated points

187.2Total

Forca Lleida88.9

Real Madrid98.3

1X2

25% 75%

Forca Lleida Real Madrid

Recent form · 10 last

Forca Lleida 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLWLLL

Real Madrid 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Forca Lleida 0–4 Real Madrid (4 last)

Real Madrid95-78Forca Lleida
Forca Lleida81-88Real Madrid
Forca Lleida84-95Real Madrid
Real Madrid85-78Forca Lleida

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forca Lleida 1486 · Real Madrid 1552

	Forca Lleida	Real Madrid
Our model	53%	47%
Market	18%	82%

Estimated total (ours) 187.2 points · Bet365 line 182.5 · +4.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points187.2Forca Lleida 88.9 · Real Madrid 98.3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1486 vs 1552).
Real Madrid is a clear favourite (75% market).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 4-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Forca Lleida	Real Madrid
Points F\|A (Last 10)	89.9 / 99.2	100.3 / 92
Points F\|A (Last 5)	93.6 / 102	107.4 / 93.6
Est. result	89	98

Est. total187.2

Line O/U182.5

Diff.4.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

15.25

21.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+10.5)1.87

2 (-10.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 182.51.87

Under 182.51.87

Diff.: 8.2 · Est. total: 190.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	1.15 → 1.15	Bet365 1.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.8%

Time*	1	2
21:49 +8’	5.25	1.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Forca Lleida 0–0–4 Real Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Spain Liga ACB	Real Madrid	95-78	Forca Lleida
20/12/25 Spain Liga ACB	Forca Lleida	81-88	Real Madrid
09/02/25 Spain Liga ACB	Forca Lleida	84-95	Real Madrid
17/11/24 Spain Liga ACB	Real Madrid	85-78	Forca Lleida

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Real Madrid	4	4	0	442	361
2	Baskonia	4	3	1	386	330
3	Breogan	4	3	1	428	399
4	Tenerife	4	3	1	332	310
5	Zaragoza	4	3	1	364	346
6	Monbus Obradoiro	4	3	1	367	360
7	Valencia	4	2	2	399	369
8	Joventut	4	2	2	386	367
9	Unicaja Malaga	4	2	2	338	325
10	Barcelona	4	2	2	391	400
11	Bilbao	4	2	2	388	402
12	Girona	4	2	2	364	400
13	San Pablo Burgos	4	1	3	350	354
14	Forca Lleida	4	1	3	373	394
15	BC Andorra	4	1	3	352	380
16	UCAM Murcia	4	1	3	347	384
17	Coruna	4	1	3	366	422
18	Manresa	4	0	4	342	412

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Forca Lleida	Real Madrid
Monbus Obradoiro	89-91 L	114-107 W
Bilbao	90-81 W	119-84 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Forca Lleida

LWLWLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	98-109	L
11/10	Monbus Obradoiro Spain Liga ACB	89-91	L
04/10	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	81-94	L
27/09	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	105-100	W
29/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	95-116	L
24/05	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	88-116	L
17/05	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	75-72	W
13/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	87-114	L
10/05	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	90-81	W
02/05	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	91-99	L

Real Madrid

LLLLWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	119-84	W
11/10	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	120-83	W
04/10	Monbus Obradoiro Spain Liga ACB	114-107	W
27/09	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	89-87	W
06/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	95-107	L
04/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	118-83	W
02/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	97-98	L
29/05	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	87-94	L
27/05	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	83-88	L
17/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	81-89	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forca Lleida vs Real Madrid?

Our model gives 75% to Real Madrid.

How many points are expected in Forca Lleida vs Real Madrid?

The model estimates 187.2 total points (Forca Lleida 88.9 · Real Madrid 98.3).