Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 04/10, 17:00

Prediction: Zaragoza vs Valencia

Team pages: Zaragoza · Valencia

Prediction summary

Estimated points

178.3Total

Zaragoza87

Valencia91.3

1X2

38% 62%

Zaragoza Valencia

Recent form · 10 last

Zaragoza 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLLWW

Valencia 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWWL

Head-to-head

Zaragoza 1–5 Valencia (6 last)

Valencia88-81Zaragoza
Zaragoza86-98Valencia
Valencia115-73Zaragoza
Zaragoza71-115Valencia
Valencia111-82Zaragoza
Zaragoza89-86Valencia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaragoza 1472 · Valencia 1605

	Zaragoza	Valencia
Our model	44%	56%
Market	37%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 178.3 points · Bet365 line 178.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points178.3Zaragoza 87 · Valencia 91.3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valencia (rating 1472 vs 1605).
H2H favours Valencia: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Zaragoza	Valencia
Points F\|A (Last 10)	86.1 / 90.5	97.6 / 87.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	87 / 94.6	102 / 91.4
Est. result	87	91

Est. total178.3

Line O/U178.5

Diff.0.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.55

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+4.5)1.87

2 (-4.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 178.51.87

Under 178.51.87

Diff.: 2.4 · Est. total: 180.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.9%

Time*	1	2
21:09 +6’	2.55	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaragoza 1–0–5 Valencia

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/09/26 Club Friendlies	Valencia	88-81	Zaragoza
26/05/26 Spain Liga ACB	Zaragoza	86-98	Valencia
12/01/26 Spain Liga ACB	Valencia	115-73	Zaragoza
01/03/25 Spain Liga ACB	Zaragoza	71-115	Valencia
15/11/24 Spain Liga ACB	Valencia	111-82	Zaragoza
18/09/24 Club Friendlies	Zaragoza	89-86	Valencia

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Barcelona	1	1	0	119	101
2	Bilbao	1	1	0	107	92
3	Girona	1	1	0	84	77
4	Breogan	1	1	0	110	104
5	Forca Lleida	1	1	0	105	100
6	Monbus Obradoiro	1	1	0	90	85
7	Real Madrid	1	1	0	89	87
8	Baskonia	1	1	0	98	97
9	Zaragoza	1	1	0	81	80
10	San Pablo Burgos	1	0	1	97	98
11	Tenerife	1	0	1	80	81
12	Unicaja Malaga	1	0	1	87	89
13	Valencia	1	0	1	100	105
14	BC Andorra	1	0	1	85	90
15	Joventut	1	0	1	104	110
16	UCAM Murcia	1	0	1	77	84
17	Manresa	1	0	1	92	107
18	Coruna	1	0	1	101	119

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaragoza	Valencia
Forca Lleida	107-91 W	100-105 L
Barcelona	86-92 L	108-84 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaragoza

LWWLLLLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	81-80	W
29/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	95-94	W
26/05	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	86-98	L
24/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	90-100	L
16/05	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	83-101	L
09/05	Granada Spain Liga ACB	74-85	L
02/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	81-90	L
18/04	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	78-74	W
11/04	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	107-91	W
05/04	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	86-92	L

Valencia

WWWWWLWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	100-105	L
24/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	108-84	W
22/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	88-80	W
20/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	102-75	W
18/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	112-113	L
14/06	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	87-75	W
12/06	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	90-76	W
10/06	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	118-117	W
05/06	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	88-71	W
03/06	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	83-80	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaragoza vs Valencia?

Our model gives 62% to Valencia.

How many points are expected in Zaragoza vs Valencia?

The model estimates 178.3 total points (Zaragoza 87 · Valencia 91.3).